Weather Trends & Analysis
In-depth analysis of record-breaking weather events, seasonal outlooks, and climate trends. Every article is backed by historical data from 139+ million NOAA observations covering 14,000+ US weather stations since 1970.
Latest Analysis
The Worst Wildfires in US History: Deaths, Acres & NOAA Data
The 12 deadliest and largest US wildfires ranked — from the Peshtigo Fire (1,500–2,500 dead) to the 2025 LA fires ($50B+). Plus: wildfire season 2026 forecast (5.5–8M acres), why drought is the real setup, and what NOAA records show about each fire.
The Worst Floods in US History: Deaths, Damage & NOAA Data
The 12 deadliest US floods ranked — from the Galveston Hurricane (8,000+ dead) to Hurricane Helene (234 dead). Plus Johnstown 1889, the Great Flood of 1993, Hurricane Harvey's 60 inches of rain, and whether floods are getting worse.
Best Time to Visit Death Valley: Month-by-Month Weather Data
November–March is best (65–82°F). July averages 117°F with ~15 days above 120°F. Month-by-month NOAA data from Furnace Creek, wildflower trigger conditions, heat danger zones, and the 134°F record controversy.
The Deadliest Hurricanes in US History: Deaths, Damage & NOAA Data
The 15 deadliest US hurricanes ranked — from Galveston 1900 (8,000+ dead) to Hurricane Helene 2024 (234 dead). Plus the 10 costliest storms (inflation-adjusted), the 8 strongest landfalls, and why Florida has absorbed all 4 Category 5 hits.
The Worst Blizzards in US History: Deaths, Snowfall & NOAA Data
The 12 worst US blizzards ranked — from the Great Blizzard of 1888 (400+ dead, 50" in NYC) to Winter Storm Uri (246–700 dead, $195B damage). Plus the Children's Blizzard, the Storm of the Century, and whether blizzards are actually getting worse.
4th of July Weather History: Every Independence Day on Record
Thomas Jefferson recorded 76°F on the first one. In 1911, Nashua NH hit 106°F. In 2023, it was the hottest day Earth had ever experienced. City-by-city averages for 40 cities, the deadliest July 4th disasters, and why your Independence Day is 2–4°F hotter than it used to be.
The Worst Heat Waves in US History: Deaths, Records & NOAA Data
The 10 deadliest US heat waves ranked — from the 1901 Eastern heat wave (~9,500 dead) to the 2023 Phoenix crisis (645 dead in one county). Plus: what a heat dome actually is, why nighttime heat kills, and the trend that should worry everyone.
Best Time to Visit Glacier: When the Road Opens, When Smoke Arrives
Mid-July to mid-August is the best window — Going-to-the-Sun Road is open, trails are clear, and smoke hasn't arrived. 12 years of road opening dates (June 13 to July 13 range) plus wildfire smoke history.
Best Time to Visit Grand Canyon: Three Climate Zones, One Decision
April and October are the best months for most visitors. South Rim (7,000'), North Rim (8,297'), and inner canyon (2,460') have completely different weather — Phantom Ranch hits 120°F while the rim is 84°F.
Best Time to Visit Yellowstone: What 55 Years of Weather Data Shows
September is the best month for most visitors — 45% fewer crowds than July, elk bugling, fall colors, and highs of 63°F. Month-by-month breakdown from NOAA station records with road opening dates and wildlife guides.
Best Time to Visit Zion: Flash Flood Risk, Heat Data & Trail Conditions
April and October are the best months — 70s temperatures, low flash flood risk, all trails open. July is the worst: 101°F, monsoon floods, and The Narrows closes constantly. Data from NOAA and NPS records.
El Niño 2026 Forecast: Super El Niño Could Be Strongest on Record
Super El Niño odds doubled to 50%. ECMWF models project +3.0°C SST anomaly — potentially the strongest since 1877. Region-by-region analysis from 5 past events using NOAA station data.
Hurricane Season 2026 Predictions: Super El Niño Changes Everything
Super El Niño now 50% likely — up from 25% when CSU issued their forecast. NOAA’s official outlook drops May 21. Every El Niño hurricane season since 1991 analyzed, plus state risk from 170+ years of data.
The Hottest Temperatures Ever Recorded in Every US State
All 50 states ranked by their all-time record highs, from Death Valley’s 134°F to Alaska and Hawaii at 100°F. Why 13 records from 1936 still stand, the Death Valley controversy, and what March 2026 tells us about the future.
Tornado Season 2026: Forecasts, Historical Data & What to Expect
304 tornadoes so far in 2026, including an EF5 in Indiana. See the AccuWeather forecast (1,050–1,250 for the year), month-by-month regional breakdown, and how 2026 compares to 1974 and 2011.
March 2026 Heat Wave Shattered Records in 14 States
112°F in mid-March. 7,000+ daily records broken. State-by-state breakdown with city departure tables, cascading impacts on wildfire risk and snowpack, and the climate attribution science.
The Coldest Temperatures Ever Recorded in Every US State
All 50 states ranked by their all-time record lows, from Alaska’s -80°F at Prospect Creek to Hawaii’s +12°F on Mauna Kea. Plus the record high vs low ratio shift from 1:1 to 6:1.
Summer 2026 Weather Outlook: What History and Forecasts Tell Us
El Niño now 85% likely. Drought covers 61% of the lower 48. CSU forecasts below-average hurricanes. Carbon Brief projects 2026 as 2nd warmest year ever. Updated April 22 with latest data.
Winter 2025-26 Was the 2nd Warmest on Record
The winter of 2025-26 was the second warmest in 131 years of US records. Nine states broke all-time records. See city-level data from 55+ years of NOAA observations.
About Our Analysis
Every trend article on this site is built on NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-D) dataset, the official US government weather record. We pair that raw station data with forecasts from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center, and peer-reviewed attribution science to give you context you won't find in a summary.
Looking for data on a specific location? Start with our state records hub or US cities directory. For historical weather on a specific date, use the lookup tool on our homepage.