Weather Trends & Analysis
In-depth analysis of record-breaking weather events, seasonal outlooks, and climate trends. Every article is backed by historical data from 139+ million NOAA observations covering 14,000+ US weather stations since 1970.
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Latest Analysis
Best Golf-Weather Destinations in the US, Ranked by the Numbers
We scored 18 top US golf destinations on 30+ years of temperature, rain, wind and cloud data to rank them by how many months deliver good golf weather. Coastal California wins on season length; the desert owns winter.
Best Winter Golf Destinations in the US, Ranked by the Data
Where should you play golf in winter? We scored 18 US golf destinations on December–February weather using 30+ years of data. The Desert Southwest and South Florida dominate the ranking.
2026 Is on Track to Be the Hottest Year in US History
Every rolling 12-month window since April 2025 has been the warmest on record. March shattered the all-time departure record by 9.35°F. 18 states set new monthly records through April. Plus: Super El Niño, record drought, and what to expect next.
Best Weather States in America: All 50 Ranked by NOAA Data
We scored every state on 4 NOAA climate metrics — sunshine hours, temperature comfort, humidity, and rainy days. California wins at 89/100. Florida is overrated (#8). Alaska is dead last. Full table with all 50 states.
Best Time to Visit Olympic: Three Climate Zones, One Answer
Late July is the only month where all three zones cooperate. The Hoh Rainforest drops to just 2.2" of rain (vs 24.8" in January), Hurricane Ridge is snow-free, and the coast gets 4 rainy days instead of 20. Zone-by-zone NOAA data.
Best Time to Visit Joshua Tree: Heat Safety, Super Bloom & Stargazing
October is the sweet spot — 80°F days, 49°F nights, perfect rock climbing friction. Summer will try to kill you: Pinto Basin hits 110°F+ with ground temps above 150°F. Dual-elevation NOAA data plus super bloom year history.
The Deadliest Tornadoes in American History
The Tri-State Tornado killed 695 in 1925 — with zero warning. We ranked 15 deadliest US tornadoes plus the 5 worst outbreaks using NOAA SPC data. Deaths by decade table shows how warning systems changed everything.
Best Time to Visit Acadia National Park: Weather by Month
September wins: fog drops by half, crowds thin, and foliage starts on Cadillac. 75 years of NOAA data for Bar Harbor — fog days, frost dates, Cadillac sunrise reservation guide, and 2026 El Niño foliage forecast.
Best Time to Visit Yosemite: Waterfalls, Tioga Road & Smoke Data
May is the best overall month — waterfalls peak, Tioga Road opens, and valley highs hit 72°F. NOAA data from two elevation stations, 12 years of Tioga Road opening dates, and wildfire smoke risk analysis.
Best Time to Visit Sequoia: Giant Trees, Three Elevation Zones
May and September are the sweet spots — 62–72°F at the Giant Forest (6,500 ft) while foothills bake at 96°F. NOAA data from three elevations, Castle Fire impact on sequoias, and road condition history.
May 2026 Super Tornado Outbreak: 206 Tornadoes, 78 Deaths & the First Minnesota EF5
162 tornadoes in 24 hours — the 2nd most ever. 78 dead across 12 states. Rochester’s EF5 was Minnesota’s first and the first US EF5 in 13 years. How NOAA SPC data ranks this against the 2011 and 1974 super outbreaks.
The Worst Wildfires in US History: Deaths, Acres & NOAA Data
The 12 deadliest and largest US wildfires ranked — from the Peshtigo Fire (1,500–2,500 dead) to the 2025 LA fires ($50B+). Plus: wildfire season 2026 forecast (5.5–8M acres), why drought is the real setup, and what NOAA records show about each fire.
The Worst Floods in US History: Deaths, Damage & NOAA Data
The 12 deadliest US floods ranked — from the Galveston Hurricane (8,000+ dead) to Hurricane Helene (234 dead). Plus Johnstown 1889, the Great Flood of 1993, Hurricane Harvey’s 60 inches of rain, and whether floods are getting worse.
Best Time to Visit Death Valley: Month-by-Month Weather Data
November–March is best (65–82°F). July averages 117°F with ~15 days above 120°F. Month-by-month NOAA data from Furnace Creek, wildflower trigger conditions, heat danger zones, and the 134°F record controversy.
The Deadliest Hurricanes in US History: Deaths, Damage & NOAA Data
The 15 deadliest US hurricanes ranked — from Galveston 1900 (8,000+ dead) to Hurricane Helene 2024 (234 dead). Plus the 10 costliest storms (inflation-adjusted), the 8 strongest landfalls, and why Florida has absorbed all 4 Category 5 hits.
The Worst Blizzards in US History: Deaths, Snowfall & NOAA Data
The 12 worst US blizzards ranked — from the Great Blizzard of 1888 (400+ dead, 50" in NYC) to Winter Storm Uri (246–700 dead, $195B damage). Plus the Children’s Blizzard, the Storm of the Century, and whether blizzards are actually getting worse.
4th of July Weather History: Every Independence Day on Record
Thomas Jefferson recorded 76°F on the first one. In 1911, Nashua NH hit 106°F. In 2023, it was the hottest day Earth had ever experienced. City-by-city averages for 40 cities, the deadliest July 4th disasters, and why your Independence Day is 2–4°F hotter than it used to be.
The Worst Heat Waves in US History: Deaths, Records & NOAA Data
The 10 deadliest US heat waves ranked — from the 1901 Eastern heat wave (~9,500 dead) to the 2023 Phoenix crisis (645 dead in one county). Plus: what a heat dome actually is, why nighttime heat kills, and the trend that should worry everyone.
Best Time to Visit Glacier: When the Road Opens, When Smoke Arrives
Mid-July to mid-August is the best window — Going-to-the-Sun Road is open, trails are clear, and smoke hasn’t arrived. 12 years of road opening dates (June 13 to July 13 range) plus wildfire smoke history.
Best Time to Visit Grand Canyon: Three Climate Zones, One Decision
April and October are the best months for most visitors. South Rim (7,000'), North Rim (8,297'), and inner canyon (2,460') have completely different weather — Phantom Ranch hits 120°F while the rim is 84°F.
Best Time to Visit Zion: Flash Flood Risk, Heat Data & Trail Conditions
April and October are the best months — 70s temperatures, low flash flood risk, all trails open. July is the worst: 101°F, monsoon floods, and The Narrows closes constantly. Data from NOAA and NPS records.
Best Time to Visit Yellowstone: What 55 Years of Weather Data Shows
September is the best month for most visitors — 45% fewer crowds than July, elk bugling, fall colors, and highs of 63°F. Month-by-month breakdown from NOAA station records with road opening dates and wildlife guides.
El Niño 2026 Forecast: Super El Niño Could Be Strongest on Record
Super El Niño odds doubled to 50%. ECMWF models project +3.0°C SST anomaly — potentially the strongest since 1877. Region-by-region analysis from 5 past events using NOAA station data.
Hurricane Season 2026 Predictions: Super El Niño Changes Everything
Super El Niño now 50% likely — up from 25% when CSU issued their forecast. NOAA’s official outlook drops May 21. Every El Niño hurricane season since 1991 analyzed, plus state risk from 170+ years of data.
Summer 2026 Weather Outlook: What History and Forecasts Tell Us
El Niño now 85% likely. Drought covers 61% of the lower 48. CSU forecasts below-average hurricanes. Carbon Brief projects 2026 as 2nd warmest year ever. Updated April 22 with latest data.
The Hottest Temperatures Ever Recorded in Every US State
All 50 states ranked by their all-time record highs, from Death Valley’s 134°F to Alaska and Hawaii at 100°F. Why 13 records from 1936 still stand, the Death Valley controversy, and what March 2026 tells us about the future.
Tornado Season 2026: Forecasts, Historical Data & What to Expect
304 tornadoes so far in 2026, including an EF5 in Indiana. See the AccuWeather forecast (1,050–1,250 for the year), month-by-month regional breakdown, and how 2026 compares to 1974 and 2011.
The Coldest Temperatures Ever Recorded in Every US State
All 50 states ranked by their all-time record lows, from Alaska’s -80°F at Prospect Creek to Hawaii’s +12°F on Mauna Kea. Plus the record high vs low ratio shift from 1:1 to 6:1.
March 2026 Heat Wave Shattered Records in 14 States
112°F in mid-March. 7,000+ daily records broken. State-by-state breakdown with city departure tables, cascading impacts on wildfire risk and snowpack, and the climate attribution science.
Winter 2025-26 Was the 2nd Warmest on Record
The winter of 2025-26 was the second warmest in 131 years of US records. Nine states broke all-time records. See city-level data from 55+ years of NOAA observations.
About Our Analysis
Every trend article on this site is built on NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-D) dataset, the official US government weather record. We pair that raw station data with forecasts from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center, and peer-reviewed attribution science to give you context you won't find in a summary.
Looking for data on a specific location? Start with our state records hub or US cities directory. For historical weather on a specific date, use the lookup tool on our homepage.