4th of July Weather History: Every Independence Day on Record
Thomas Jefferson recorded 76°F in Philadelphia on the first one. In 1911, Nashua, NH hit 106°F. In 2023, it was literally the hottest day Earth had ever experienced. Here's what 250 years of July 4th weather actually looks like.
The Day America Celebrates Outdoors — and the Weather That Shaped It
July 4th is the most weather-dependent holiday in America. Fireworks, cookouts, parades, beach trips — everything depends on what the sky does. And the sky hasn't always cooperated.
I pulled NOAA station data for 40 major US cities going back decades, cross-referenced it with Climate Central's warming analysis, and dug through 250 years of historical records to build what I think is the most complete picture of July 4th weather that exists anywhere. Some of what I found surprised me — like the fact that New Hampshire recorded a higher July 4th temperature (106°F) than Phoenix has ever recorded on that specific date.
The short version: your July 4th is probably 2–4°F hotter than your grandparents' was. The nights are warming even faster. And the most extreme Independence Day events — from the 1911 heat wave that killed hundreds to the 2025 Texas flood that killed 139 — tend to cluster in eras of climate stress. We're in one of those eras right now, with El Niño forming for summer 2026.
The Most Extreme July 4th Weather Events in US History
From deadly flash floods to record-breaking heat waves to frost in July — Independence Day has seen it all.
Central Texas Flash Flood — 139 Dead
In the early hours of July 4, 2025, a slow-moving thunderstorm complex fueled by remnants of Tropical Storm Barry dumped 2–3 inches per hour across the Texas Hill Country. The Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in under 45 minutes, cresting at a record 37.52 feet. At least 139 people died across five counties, including 27 campers and counselors at Camp Mystic in Kerr County. It was the deadliest US flash flood since Big Thompson Canyon in 1976.
Earth's Hottest Day in Recorded History
The global average temperature hit 17.18°C (62.9°F) on July 4, 2023, according to the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer — the highest value since satellite measurements began in 1979 and likely the hottest single day in at least 125,000 years, according to paleo-proxy data. The record was broken again the next day (July 5), then again on July 6. A combination of El Niño and long-term warming drove the anomaly.
38 Record Highs Broken Across the Upper Midwest
A punishing heat dome parked over the central US pushed July 4th temperatures past 100°F from Kansas to Michigan. Minnesota hit 101°F statewide. Chicago topped 103°F. At least 38 weather stations set all-time July 4th records. The heat wave killed at least 82 people nationwide that week and contributed to the worst US drought since the Dust Bowl.
Coast-to-Coast 100°F — 380+ Dead
The hottest July 4th in American history. Nashua, New Hampshire hit 106°F. Most of Maine reached 102°F. Vermont recorded its all-time state record of 105°F at Vernon. The heat wave killed at least 380 people over the following days and sparked a broader 11-day crisis that killed roughly 2,000 people across the Northeast, many from drowning while desperately trying to cool off.
Dust Bowl Inferno Peaks
July 4, 1936 fell in the middle of the deadliest heat wave in US history. Kansas, North Dakota, and other Great Plains states were already shattering records that would stand for 90+ years. An estimated 5,000 Americans died that summer. Thirteen state all-time high records from 1936 still haven't been broken.
Kentucky Flash Flood — 79 Dead
On July 5, 1939 (overnight after July 4th celebrations), Frozen Creek in Breathitt County, Kentucky rose 20 feet in 10 minutes after nearly 3 inches of rain fell in 3–4 hours. The flood killed 79 people across 21 eastern Kentucky counties. 44 houses and 60 barns were swept away. Many victims were asleep when the water hit.
The Year Without a Summer — Frost on July 4th
Following the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia — the largest volcanic eruption in recorded history — 1816 became the "Year Without a Summer." Frost and ice were reported in parts of the northern US on July 4–5. People went sleighing and huddled by fires on Independence Day. Snow fell in New England during July and August. Crop failures caused widespread famine across the Northern Hemisphere.
The First July 4th — Jefferson Recorded 76°F
Thomas Jefferson, an avid weather observer, recorded conditions in Philadelphia on the day the Continental Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence. At 6 AM: 68°F with clear skies. At 9 AM: 72°F, mostly sunny. By 1 PM: 76°F with increasing clouds and a southwest wind. He skipped his usual 3–4 PM reading — presumably occupied with other matters. Charles Pemberton, another observer, independently confirmed 76°F that afternoon. An unseasonably mild day for typically hot and humid Philadelphia.
July 4th Weather for 40 US Cities: Average Highs, Lows & Rain Odds
Based on NOAA climate normals. Phoenix averages 110°F. San Francisco barely cracks 68°F. Miami has a 40% chance of rain. Find your city and plan accordingly.
| City | Avg High | Avg Low | Rain % | Record High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PhoenixAZ | 110°F | 85°F | 5% | 118°F (2007) |
| Las VegasNV | 106°F | 79°F | 3% | 117°F (2007) |
| DallasTX | 96°F | 76°F | 10% | 109°F (1980) |
| HoustonTX | 94°F | 75°F | 25% | 105°F (1980) |
| San AntonioTX | 95°F | 74°F | 12% | 107°F (2012) |
| AtlantaGA | 89°F | 70°F | 35% | 103°F (2012) |
| MiamiFL | 91°F | 77°F | 40% | 97°F (1998) |
| OrlandoFL | 92°F | 74°F | 45% | 100°F (1998) |
| TampaFL | 91°F | 76°F | 42% | 98°F (1993) |
| NashvilleTN | 90°F | 70°F | 30% | 107°F (2012) |
| CharlotteNC | 90°F | 69°F | 32% | 104°F (2012) |
| New YorkNY | 84°F | 69°F | 28% | 102°F (2010) |
| PhiladelphiaPA | 87°F | 69°F | 28% | 104°F (2010) |
| Washington DCDC | 88°F | 72°F | 30% | 104°F (2010) |
| BostonMA | 82°F | 65°F | 25% | 100°F (2010) |
| ChicagoIL | 84°F | 65°F | 28% | 104°F (2012) |
| DetroitMI | 83°F | 63°F | 25% | 104°F (2012) |
| MinneapolisMN | 83°F | 64°F | 25% | 106°F (1988) |
| MilwaukeeWI | 81°F | 63°F | 25% | 103°F (2012) |
| DenverCO | 90°F | 59°F | 20% | 105°F (2012) |
| AlbuquerqueNM | 95°F | 66°F | 10% | 107°F (2003) |
| Salt Lake CityUT | 93°F | 64°F | 8% | 107°F (2007) |
| Los AngelesCA | 84°F | 63°F | 2% | 110°F (2018) |
| San DiegoCA | 76°F | 65°F | 2% | 95°F (1979) |
| San FranciscoCA | 68°F | 55°F | 1% | 95°F (1988) |
| SacramentoCA | 95°F | 60°F | 1% | 114°F (2007) |
| PortlandOR | 81°F | 57°F | 8% | 105°F (2009) |
| SeattleWA | 75°F | 56°F | 12% | 99°F (2009) |
| IndianapolisIN | 85°F | 65°F | 28% | 104°F (2012) |
| ColumbusOH | 85°F | 64°F | 28% | 102°F (2012) |
| PittsburghPA | 83°F | 62°F | 30% | 100°F (2012) |
| MemphisTN | 92°F | 73°F | 28% | 106°F (2012) |
| New OrleansLA | 92°F | 76°F | 40% | 102°F (2000) |
| JacksonvilleFL | 92°F | 73°F | 40% | 103°F (1998) |
| Kansas CityMO | 89°F | 69°F | 25% | 109°F (1936) |
| St. LouisMO | 89°F | 70°F | 25% | 108°F (1936) |
| AustinTX | 96°F | 74°F | 10% | 108°F (2009) |
| TucsonAZ | 104°F | 78°F | 10% | 115°F (1990) |
| LouisvilleKY | 88°F | 68°F | 30% | 105°F (2012) |
| BaltimoreMD | 88°F | 69°F | 28% | 105°F (2010) |
Data from NOAA GHCN-D climate normals (1991–2020) and NWS station records. Rain probability based on the percentage of years with measurable precipitation (≥0.01") on July 4th. Record highs are the highest temperature ever recorded at the primary airport station on July 4th.
Look up your city's full July 4th history: Enter any US ZIP code on the homepage weather lookup and select July 4 to see every recorded temperature, rainfall, and snowfall for your exact location. Or browse the Independence Day holiday page for historical averages by city.
Are July 4ths Getting Hotter? Yes — and the Nights Are Warming Faster
Climate Central analyzed 243 US cities and found that 93% have experienced warmer Julys since 1970, with an average increase of 2.4°F. That might not sound like much, but it shifts the entire distribution — what used to be an unusually hot July 4th is now just a normal one, and what used to be normal feels like a cool year.
The regional differences are stark. The Northwest has warmed most (+3.9°F), which helps explain why the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome shattered records by such extreme margins — Portland's 116°F blew past its old record by 9 degrees. The Southwest added 3.3°F, the Northeast 2.6°F.
July warming by US region since 1970. Source: Climate Central, NOAA GHCN-D.
The more dangerous trend is nighttime. NOAA data shows July overnight lows are warming at roughly twice the rate of daytime highs. This matters because your body needs cool nights to recover from daytime heat stress. When overnight lows stay above 75–80°F, heat-related illness and death rates spike — that's exactly what happened during the 2023 Phoenix heat when overnight lows hit 97°F, and during the 1995 Chicago heat wave when nighttime temperatures in the upper 70s killed 739 people in five days.
July 4th 2026: What to Expect With El Niño Building
El Niño is 61–85% likely by summer 2026 depending on which forecast model you trust. What does that mean for July 4th?
Historically, El Niño summers bring above-average heat to the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, with a weaker warm signal across the northern tier. The southern US sees more moisture, which can mean both more thunderstorm-cancelled fireworks shows and higher humidity that makes 90°F feel like 100°F.
The Summer 2026 outlook points to elevated heat risk across the West and above-normal thunderstorm activity from the Plains to the East Coast. If you're planning outdoor events, the city table above gives you your local baseline — then plan for it to be a few degrees hotter than average.
The 2026 hurricane season is forecast below average due to El Niño wind shear, so Gulf Coast July 4th plans are less likely to be disrupted by tropical systems — though the 2025 Texas flood proved that non-tropical storms can be far deadlier.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the hottest July 4th ever recorded in the US?
July 4, 1911. Nashua, New Hampshire hit 106°F, Vermont set its all-time state record of 105°F at Vernon, and 100°F+ temperatures were reported coast to coast. The subsequent heat wave killed over 380 people. The Dust Bowl July 4th of 1936 was also extreme, falling in the deadliest US heat wave ever (5,000+ deaths). See our all-time hottest temperatures by state for the complete record.
Was July 4, 2023 really the hottest day on Earth?
Yes. The global average hit 17.18°C (62.9°F) that day, per the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer — the highest since satellite records began in 1979, and likely the hottest in at least 125,000 years based on paleo-proxy data. The record was broken again July 5 and July 6. El Niño plus long-term warming drove the anomaly.
What was the weather on the original July 4, 1776?
Thomas Jefferson recorded conditions in Philadelphia: 68°F at 6 AM, 72°F at 9 AM, 76°F by 1 PM. Clear skies early, increasing clouds by afternoon with a southwest wind. He skipped his 3–4 PM reading — he was busy adopting the Declaration of Independence. Charles Pemberton independently confirmed 76°F that afternoon. Unseasonably mild for Philadelphia.
Are July 4ths getting hotter?
Yes. Climate Central found 93% of 243 US cities have warmer Julys since 1970, averaging +2.4°F. The Northwest leads at +3.9°F. More concerning: July overnight lows are warming at roughly twice the rate of daytime highs, meaning hotter nights that prevent your body from recovering from daytime heat. With El Niño building for 2026, this summer could push that trend further.
What was the deadliest July 4th weather disaster?
The July 4, 2025 Central Texas flash flood killed at least 139 people when the Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in under 45 minutes. It was the deadliest US flash flood since Big Thompson Canyon (1976, 144 killed). The 1939 Kentucky flash flood also struck on July 4th weekend, killing 79 when Frozen Creek rose 20 feet in 10 minutes.
Data Sources & Methodology
City averages from NOAA GHCN-D climate normals (1991–2020) and NWS station records for July 4th. Regional warming data from Climate Central's July 4th Extremes analysis. Global temperature record (July 4, 2023) from the University of Maine Climate Reanalyzer using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Jefferson's 1776 weather observations from the Library of Congress — Jefferson's Weather Memorandum Book. Historical event details from NWS, FEMA, the Texas Tribune, and county coroner reports. The 2025 Texas flood death toll (139) is from the Texas Division of Emergency Management as of August 2025.
Explore July 4th Weather by State
Look up temperature records and weather history for any state to see how your area's July 4th weather compares.
Summer 2026 Weather Outlook: What History and Forecasts Tell Us
El Niño, drought, and warming trends — what the data says about summer 2026.
What was the weather on YOUR July 4th?
Enter any US ZIP code to see every recorded July 4th temperature, rainfall, and snowfall for your exact location — going back 55 years.
Look Up Your July 4th Weather History →