Tornado Season 2026: An EF5 Already, a Shifting Alley, and the Deadliest Month Still Ahead
304 tornadoes. 11 dead. An EF5 in Indiana — only the second since 2013. And May, the most active tornado month in US history, hasn't even started. We pulled NOAA records and AccuWeather forecasts to put 2026 in context.
The 2026 tornado season arrived early and arrived angry. By the end of March, 204 tornadoes had touched down — nearly triple the monthly average — making it the third most active March on record. One of those tornadoes, an EF5 in Indiana with winds exceeding 200 mph, was only the second EF5 rated anywhere in the US since 2013.
The link between March's tornadoes and March's record-shattering heat wave isn't a coincidence. Record warmth pumps moisture into the atmosphere and destabilizes air masses. When that warm, humid air collides with cooler air pushing down from Canada, you get the kind of explosive thunderstorm development that spawns tornadoes. March 2026 had both ingredients in abundance.
AccuWeather's full-year forecast calls for 1,050 to 1,250 tornadoes — near the historical average of about 1,225 per year. That sounds reassuring until you remember two things: the most active month (May) hasn't started, and the current La Niña-to-El Niño climate transition looks a lot like what happened before the devastating tornado seasons of 1974 and 2011.
When Is Tornado Season? A Month-by-Month Breakdown
There's no official start or end date. Tornadoes can strike any month. But the data is clear about when risk spikes: April through June accounts for roughly 60% of all US tornadoes, and May alone averages 275 to 294 — more than any other month.
What most people miss is that the peak shifts geographically as the season progresses. If you're in Alabama or Mississippi, your worst months are March and April. In Kansas and Oklahoma, it's May and June. In Minnesota and the Dakotas, peak risk doesn't arrive until June and July.
| Month | Avg. Tornadoes | Peak Region | 2026 Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| January-February | 35 each | Gulf Coast, Southeast | Southern-state tornadoes, often at night. 70 confirmed in Jan-Feb 2026. |
| March | 75-80 | Southeast, southern Plains | 204 confirmed in March 2026 — nearly 3x the average. 3rd most active March ever. |
| April | 178-212 | Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley | Major ramp-up. 30+ already in April 2026 with weeks remaining. |
| May | 275-294 | Central TX to eastern NE | Peak month nationally. The week of May 19-26 accounts for 6% of all US tornadoes on record. |
| June | ~212 | Northern Plains, upper Midwest | Risk shifts north. ND, SD, MN see their peak activity. |
| July-August | Declining | Northern Plains, scattered | Heat cap suppresses most severe thunderstorm activity. |
| September-November | Low | Southeast (secondary peak) | Dixie Alley sees a fall resurgence, especially with tropical systems. |
Averages from NOAA SPC, 1991–2020 baseline. 2026 counts from iWeatherNet and NWS.
2026 Tornado Forecast: What Experts Predict
AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Duffus put it bluntly: “There may be fewer tornadoes reported compared to last year, but that does not mean this will be a quiet severe weather season. There is an increased likelihood of severe thunderstorms packing damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. Flash flooding is a big concern this year.”
Total Tornadoes Forecast
Near the 30-year average of ~1,225. Down from 1,811 in 2024 and 1,559 in 2025.
Highest Hail Risk Corridor
From Texas to Alabama, plus Iowa to northeastern Kansas. 2-3 inch hailstones possible.
The Climate Wild Card: La Niña → El Niño
Right now, the tropical Pacific is in ENSO-neutral territory (80% probability through June). But El Niño is expected to emerge by mid-summer (61% probability by July). That matters because the transition phase between La Niña and El Niño is historically dangerous. La Niña springs tend to produce more tornadoes in the South, while neutral/El Niño conditions shift storm tracks. We saw the same La Niña-to-neutral setup before the 1974 Super Outbreak (149 tornadoes, 335 deaths) and the 2011 Super Outbreak (367 tornadoes, 553 deaths for the year).
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, IRI Columbia, CRV Science
March 2026 Early Season Review: 204 Tornadoes and an EF5
March 2026 wasn't just busy. It was historic. Two major outbreaks in the first 12 days produced 138 confirmed tornadoes and all 11 of the season's fatalities so far. The record March heat wave that pushed Arizona to 112°F also loaded the atmosphere with the energy that fueled these outbreaks.
Outbreak #1: 32 tornadoes, 8 deaths. An EF2 in Fairview, Oklahoma killed a mother and her 13-year-old daughter when their vehicle was thrown off US Highway 60. An EF3 in Union City, Michigan — the strongest Michigan tornado in 49 years — killed three people including a 12-year-old boy, with winds reaching 160 mph. Another EF3 struck Beggs, Oklahoma, killing two.
Outbreak #2: 106 tornadoes, 3 deaths. Includes an EF5. The Wells County, Indiana EF5 had winds over 200 mph along a 14.6-mile track. It was only the second EF5 in the US since 2013 — the first was the Enderlin, North Dakota EF5 in June 2025, which itself ended a 12-year EF5 drought. A separate EF3 tracked 35.6 miles from Kankakee, Illinois to Lake Village, Indiana, killing three. That storm also dropped 5-6 inch hailstones near Kankakee — potentially an Illinois state record.
The EF5 Drought Is Over
Between 2013 and 2025, no tornado in the US was rated EF5 — a 12-year gap, the longest on record. Then the Enderlin, North Dakota tornado broke the streak in June 2025 (3 deaths, winds over 210 mph). Nine months later, another EF5 hit Wells County, Indiana. Two EF5s in 10 months after 12 years of none. Only 20 states have ever had an F5 or EF5 tornado. For context, there have been roughly 60 F5/EF5 tornadoes in US history since 1950. They represent about 0.1% of all tornadoes but cause a disproportionate share of fatalities.
Tornado Alley States: Where Risk Is Highest in 2026
The term “Tornado Alley” was coined in 1952 by Air Force meteorologists. For decades it meant one thing: the corridor from west Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. That's still where the most tornadoes touch down, but it's no longer where the most people die.
Over the past two decades, tornado activity has been shifting eastward into what's now called “Dixie Alley” — the corridor from Arkansas through Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. Population density in Dixie Alley is roughly three times higher than traditional Tornado Alley, and these storms often strike at night, making them deadlier. March 2026's outbreaks fit the pattern perfectly: the worst damage hit Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan — not the traditional Plains.
Most tornadoes of any state by raw count. March 2026 outbreaks hit eastern TX hard.
Heart of Tornado Alley. EF2 hit Ottawa on April 13, 2026 with 125 mph winds.
Highest tornado density per sq. mile in the US. Two deaths in Beggs and Fairview in March.
Northern Tornado Alley anchor. Peak risk in May-June.
Increasingly active in recent years as tornado activity shifts east. March 2026 outbreak included.
Deadliest state for tornadoes. Dixie Alley epicenter. 3x the population density of traditional Alley.
Dixie Alley. Tornadoes often strike at night here, making them deadlier.
March 10 outbreak produced massive 35-mile tornado track from Kankakee to Lake Village, IN. 3 deaths.
Site of the 2026 EF5 in Wells County — only the 2nd EF5 in the US since 2013.
Sits at the crossroads of both Alleys. Joplin 2011 (158 deaths) still shapes local preparedness.
Dixie Alley. Nashville and Memphis are growing fast in tornado-prone corridors.
Hit during both March 2026 outbreaks. Peak season runs March through May here.
Annual averages from NOAA SPC and NWS data. Death averages from Insurance Information Institute.
How 2026 Compares to the Worst Tornado Years
Let's be real about what “near average” actually means. The US averages about 1,225 tornadoes per year and around 71 deaths. That's not a small number. And the year-to-year swing is enormous — 2018 had just 10 tornado fatalities, while 2011 had 553.
| Year | Tornadoes | Deaths | Notable |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (YTD) | 304 | 11 | Through April 14. EF5 in Indiana. May peak ahead. |
| 2024 | 1,811 | 54 | Most tornadoes since 2011 |
| 2025 | 1,559 | 67 | First EF5 in 12 years (Enderlin, ND) |
| 2023 | 1,297 | 83 | Above average, costly season |
| 2021 | 1,314 | 103 | December outbreak killed 90 in KY |
| 2011 | 1,692 | 553 | Super Outbreak: 367 tornadoes, 324 dead in 3 days |
| 2008 | 1,692 | 126 | Super Tuesday Outbreak (Feb 5-6) |
| 1974 | 1,317 | 366 | Super Outbreak: 149 tornadoes, 7 F5s in 18 hours |
Historical data from Insurance Information Institute and NOAA NCEI.
2011: The Benchmark
- •1,692 tornadoes, 553 deaths
- •April 25-28: 367 tornadoes in 3 days
- •April 27 alone: 122 tornadoes, 319 dead
- •Joplin, MO EF5: 158 deaths, $2.8B damage
- •ENSO: La Niña → neutral transition
2026: Where We Stand
- •304 tornadoes through April 14, 11 deaths
- •March 10-12: 106 tornadoes including an EF5
- •3rd most active March on record
- •Forecast: 1,050-1,250 total (below average)
- •ENSO: La Niña → neutral → El Niño
Tornado Facts Most People Get Wrong
I've spent years working with NOAA weather data, and some of these consistently surprise people.
EF4-EF5 Percentage
Only about 2% of tornadoes are EF4+, and EF5s are roughly 0.1%. But they cause approximately 70% of all tornado deaths. The 2026 Wells County EF5 is one of only ~60 F5/EF5 tornadoes since 1950.
Alabama's Death Toll
Alabama averages 14 tornado deaths per year — more than any other state, including Texas and Oklahoma. Nighttime tornadoes and mobile homes in the Southeast are the primary factors.
Warning System Improvement
The Tri-State Tornado killed 695 people in 1925 with zero warning. Today, average tornado lead time is 13+ minutes. Annual deaths dropped from hundreds to about 71 per year. Technology saves lives, but mobile homes remain a massive vulnerability.
Dixie Alley Population Density
The Southeast has roughly three times the population density of the traditional Great Plains Tornado Alley. As tornado activity shifts east, more people are in the path. Nashville, Memphis, Birmingham — growing cities in active tornado corridors.
What to Watch: May Through June
The peak of tornado season is still ahead. May averages 275 to 294 tornadoes nationally — more than March and April combined. The single most active week in US tornado history is May 19–26, accounting for about 6% of all tornado reports ever recorded.
AccuWeather's forecast puts May's activity centered on the traditional Tornado Alley corridor: central Texas to eastern Nebraska. That's where the classic ingredients come together — warm, moist Gulf air colliding with dry air from the Rockies along a strong jet stream. With the ENSO transition underway, storm tracks could be more volatile than usual.
If you're looking at summer plans, our summer 2026 weather outlook covers the broader forecast including the emerging El Niño and what it means for temperatures and severe weather through August.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does tornado season start and end?
Peak tornado season runs March through June, with May as the single most active month (averaging 275-294 tornadoes). But timing depends on where you live: the Southeast peaks in March-April, the central Plains in May-June, and the northern Plains in June-July. Tornadoes can occur any month — the Southeast sees a secondary peak in October-November.
How many tornadoes are predicted for 2026?
AccuWeather forecasts 1,050 to 1,250 tornadoes for 2026, near the historical average of about 1,225. As of mid-April, 304 have been confirmed — including 204 in March alone (3rd most active March on record). May, the busiest month, is still ahead.
What states are in Tornado Alley?
Traditional Tornado Alley: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota. But tornado activity has been shifting east into “Dixie Alley” — Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana. Alabama leads the nation in tornado deaths (14/year on average). The March 2026 outbreaks hit Illinois and Indiana hardest, confirming this shift.
Was there an EF5 tornado in 2026?
Yes. On March 10, an EF5 tornado struck Wells County, Indiana with winds exceeding 200 mph along a 14.6-mile path. It was only the second EF5 in the US since 2013, after a 12-year drought of the strongest-rated tornadoes that ended with the Enderlin, ND EF5 in June 2025.
Is 2026 expected to be a bad tornado season?
The forecast of 1,050-1,250 tornadoes is near or slightly below average. But “below average” doesn't mean safe — 2026 has already produced an EF5 and killed 11 people. AccuWeather also warns of elevated flash flooding and damaging wind risks even if tornado counts are lower. The La Niña-to-El Niño transition resembles the pattern before the devastating 1974 and 2011 seasons.
Data Sources & Methodology
Tornado counts and EF ratings from NOAA Storm Prediction Center and iWeatherNet. Forecast data from AccuWeather. Historical tornado deaths and annual counts from the Insurance Information Institute. ENSO forecasts from NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Tornado Alley shift research from National Geographic and Columbia IRI. March and April 2026 outbreak details from NWS local offices and media reports.
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