Summer 2026 Weather Outlook: Three Signals Pointing Toward a Hot One
The 2nd warmest winter. A March heat wave that obliterated records in 14 states. El Niño now 85% likely by summer. Global sea surface temps just set a new daily record. Summer 2026 isn't here yet, but the setup is more ominous than when we first published this article three weeks ago.
April 22 Update — What Changed Since We Published
- El Niño probability jumped. IRI's April models now show 85–94% chance El Niño conditions will be present this summer, up from 62% when we first published. ECMWF and NOAA put the chance of a strong event at 80%.
- Drought expanded, not contracted. The lower 48 drought footprint grew from 56% to 61% (April 14 Drought Monitor). Now 45 states are in moderate+ drought. The Southeast — Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina — has hit record-dry territory dating back to September 2025.
- CSU released its hurricane forecast. Just 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major — below average. El Niño's wind shear is the main reason. US landfall probability: 32% (avg is 43%).
- Global SSTs hit a new daily record in mid-April 2026. March 2026 was the second-warmest March on record globally. Carbon Brief now projects 2026 as the second-warmest year in recorded history.
Short answer: yes, summer 2026 will probably be hotter than average for most of the country. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center already has 36 states leaning toward above-normal temperatures this summer. Only Wisconsin and Michigan don't have at least some portion flagged for extra heat. The Old Farmer's Almanac ranks it the 11th-hottest summer since 1950.
But forecasts are just numbers. I find the historical setup more interesting — and honestly more concerning since our April 3 analysis. We're coming off the second warmest winter in US history, a March heat wave that broke records in ways scientists called “virtually impossible” without climate change, and El Niño is now essentially locked in — not a possibility anymore, but an 85% probability. The question has shifted from “will El Niño form?” to “how strong will it get?”
Signal 1: El Niño Is Now Essentially Locked In
When we first published this article on April 3, NOAA put El Niño emergence at 62%. Three weeks later, the picture has sharpened dramatically. La Niña collapsed, the equatorial Pacific crossed into ENSO-neutral territory, and IRI's April model consensus now shows El Niño conditions at 85–94% probability through the summer and beyond. The CPC has issued an official El Niño Watch. This isn't speculation anymore — it's a matter of how strong, not whether.
Super El Niño Watch — Probability Upgraded
ECMWF and NOAA now estimate an 80% chance of a “strong” El Niño by October–December 2026, and a 25% chance it reaches “Super” status (SST anomaly above 2.0°C). Yale Climate Connections calls it a “powerhouse” event potentially on par with 1997-98 and 2015-16. If it materializes, 2027 would almost certainly become the hottest year in recorded history. Global sea surface temperatures already set a new daily record in mid-April 2026.
What does El Niño actually do to US summers? The effects are less dramatic than its winter impacts, but they're real. The southern US tends to see more rainfall (potentially easing drought in parts of Texas and the Gulf Coast), while the northern US and Pacific Northwest often get drier and warmer. The biggest summer impact: El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear. CSU's April 9 forecast already reflects this — just 13 named storms predicted vs. the 14-storm average. More on that below.
Signal 2: March Already Broke Summer Records
Spring barely started before records fell. In the last week of March 2026, a heat dome parked over the Southwest and expanded into the Plains, producing the most expansive March heat wave in American history. Over 7,000 daily records and roughly 2,000 monthly records fell over the course of the event.
The numbers are jarring: Yuma, Arizona hit 109°F — a new national March record, beating a mark set in 1954 and 1902. Four locations in Arizona and California reached 112°F, smashing the national record for hottest March day by 4 full degrees. Phoenix tied its all-time April high of 105°F — in March. Some stations didn't just break their March records; they broke their April and May records too.
14 States Set All-Time March Records
Yuma hit 109°F — new national March record
California112°F readings in the deserts, broke April records in March
NevadaLas Vegas hit 100°F+ in March for first time on record
ColoradoAll-time March statewide record shattered
KansasMultiple stations broke March records by 5-10°F
NebraskaNew all-time March statewide high
Minnesota80°F+ readings in March — 20-40°F above normal
UtahStatewide March record broken
World Weather Attribution released a rapid study concluding this heat wave was “virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change. That's notable because attribution studies are usually hedged. This one wasn't.
So what does a historically hot March mean for summer? It doesn't guarantee a hot summer — weather isn't that simple. But it tells us the atmospheric setup (persistent ridging, dry soils amplifying heat) is already locked in across the West. And dry soil going into summer is one of the strongest predictors of extreme heat events, because there's no soil moisture to provide evaporative cooling.
Signal 3: Drought Is Worse Than a Month Ago
When we published this in early April, 56% of the lower 48 was in drought. We expected spring rains to bring relief. They haven't. As of April 14, 61% of the lower 48 is in at least moderate drought — up 5 percentage points in three weeks. That's 45 states and nearly 149 million people.
The Southeast is the new hotspot. Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina are in their driest stretch since September 2025 — breaking records that go back to 1895. Meanwhile, western snowpack remains at 25-50% of normal. Here's why that matters for summer heat: when soil is dry, incoming solar energy heats the ground and air directly instead of being used to evaporate moisture. It's the difference between putting a wet towel and a dry towel on a hot dashboard — the dry one gets scorching fast. Less moisture, more heat, more wildfire risk. The record-dry winter set this up, and April hasn't fixed it.
The Honest Answer About Winter-to-Summer Correlation
I want to address this directly because it's the obvious question: “We had a record warm winter, so does that mean summer will be brutal?”
Historically? It's basically a coin flip. Research from WKU Meteorology analyzing decades of US temperature data found that the hottest summers had about a 50% chance of being followed by above-average winters. The seasons are largely independent weather-wise — different jet stream patterns, different ocean conditions, different drivers.
Why This Summer Is Different
The case for a hot summer 2026 doesn't rest on winter warmth alone. It's the convergence of three independent factors: El Niño now 85% likely (with an 80% chance of reaching “strong”), drought worsening to 61% of the lower 48 across 45 states, and a 55-year warming trend where 97% of major cities now run hotter summers than their 1970 baselines. Each amplifies the others. That's what makes the CPC outlook so lopsided toward warmth.
City by City: Where Summers Are Trending Hottest
A Climate Central analysis of 242 major US cities found that 97% have warmer summers now than they did in the 1970s, with an average warming of 2.6°F. That might sound small, but for a three-month average, it's enormous. Here are the cities where I'd be most concerned heading into summer.
| City | Warming/Decade | Recent Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix, AZ | +0.7°F | 7 of last 10 summers above historical avg |
| Las Vegas, NV | +0.8°F | Record 120°F+ days in summer 2024 |
| Dallas, TX | +0.5°F | 2023 had most 100°F+ days in 40 years |
| Denver, CO | +0.6°F | Summer avg up 3°F since 1970 |
| Chicago, IL | +0.4°F | Heat waves arriving earlier in season |
| New York City, NY | +0.5°F | Overnight lows rising faster than highs |
| Miami, FL | +0.3°F | Marine heat waves extending summer season |
| Houston, TX | +0.4°F | Heat index days above 110°F increasing |
Warming rates computed from NOAA GHCN-Daily summer observations (June–August), 1970–2025.
What to Watch: May Through August
Seasonal outlooks aren't prophecies. They're probabilities. Here's what I'll be tracking as summer approaches, and what would change the picture.
El Niño Strength
If El Niño develops but stays weak or moderate, summer heat effects will be more regional. If it rockets toward Super El Niño territory by fall, expect global temperature records to fall in late 2026 and especially 2027. The May ENSO diagnostic will be the first real signal of how strong this event will get.
Drought Evolution
Spring rainfall matters enormously. A wet April–May across the Plains and Midwest could significantly reduce summer heat risk in those regions by recharging soil moisture. Watch the weekly US Drought Monitor for whether that 56% coverage number grows or shrinks heading into June.
Jet Stream Pattern
Persistent heat domes (like the one that caused the March heat wave) form when the jet stream buckles into a pattern that parks high pressure over a region. Whether the jet stream settles into a blocking pattern this summer — and where — will determine which cities get the worst of it. That's genuinely unpredictable more than 2 weeks out.
Hurricane Season — CSU Forecast Is In
Colorado State University released its 2026 forecast on April 9: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major — all below the 14/7/3 average. El Niño's wind shear is the main driver. US landfall probability is just 32% (average: 43%). However, the University of Arizona is an outlier at 20 named storms, arguing warm Atlantic SSTs will overpower El Niño suppression. After the hyperactive 2024 and 2025 seasons, a quieter 2026 would be welcome — but one strong El Niño year (2004) still produced Hurricane Ivan.
2026 Is Now Projected as the Second-Warmest Year in History
When we published this article, the Met Office called 2026 “one of the four warmest years on record.” Three weeks later, Carbon Brief's analysis has sharpened that: a strong El Niño puts 2026 on track for the second-warmest year ever. March 2026 was the second-warmest March on record globally. Global sea surface temperatures set a new daily record in mid-April. There's a roughly 30% chance 2026 will be the second year to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. And if a strong or Super El Niño peaks on schedule, its warming effect lags by ~3 months — putting 2027 squarely in the crosshairs for hottest year in recorded history.
Check the hottest temperatures ever recorded in every US state to see how current extremes compare to the historical record.
Data Sources & Methodology
This analysis draws on multiple sources: the NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook, the IRI April 2026 ENSO Quick Look, the Carbon Brief state-of-the-climate analysis, the CSU April 2026 hurricane season forecast, city-level warming trends from 55 years of NOAA GHCN-Daily observations, and the Yale Climate Connections El Niño analysis. El Niño probabilities from the CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion. Drought data from the US Drought Monitor (April 14, 2026). Summer warming trends from Climate Central. “Summer” refers to meteorological summer: June, July, and August. Originally published April 3, 2026; updated April 22 with current data.
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