Winter 2025-26 Was the 2nd Warmest on Record — Here's What the Data Shows
Nine states shattered all-time winter records. Daytime highs hit levels never seen in 131 years. Meanwhile, the East got buried in snow. A data-driven breakdown of the most lopsided winter in modern US history.
The numbers are in, and they're stark: winter 2025-26 averaged 37.13°F across the contiguous United States — just 0.34°F below the all-time warmest winter of 2023-24. That means the two warmest US winters in 131 years of recordkeeping both happened within the last three years.
But the national average only tells part of the story. This was a “split-screen winter” — the West baked under persistent high-pressure ridges that kept temperatures 7°F+ above normal, while the East endured a late-January cold snap that brought wind chills to -36°F in Chicago and dumped nearly 38 inches of snow on Providence in a single storm. The contrast was so extreme that NOAA climate chief Russell Vose put it plainly: “The East, especially the Northeast, had winter. In the West, there were places where you could say we missed the winter.”
Month-by-Month Breakdown
December 2025
Persistent ridging set up across the West early. Denver saw a December average of 42.3°F. Phoenix was already trending well above normal, and snow drought conditions began forming across mountain basins.
January 2026
The “cold month” — but only because of a brutal Eastern cold snap from January 20 to February 4. Chicago hit -11°F. New York saw its coldest stretch since 1961. Out West, it barely mattered — record highs outnumbered record lows 4-to-1.
February 2026
February averaged 40.4°F nationally — 6.6°F above the 20th-century average. Seven states set new February records. On February 26, Falcon Dam in South Texas hit 106°F, the hottest temperature ever recorded during meteorological winter in the US.
The 9 States That Broke All-Time Winter Records
These states recorded their warmest-ever winter since records began in 1895. Every state from Texas to South Dakota westward to the Pacific coast ranked in the top 10. Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah each smashed their previous records by more than 2°F — a massive margin for a seasonal average.
Broke previous record by more than 2°F
Statewide average 33.6°F, breaking 1980-81 record of 32.0°F
Las Vegas averaged 55.3°F, topping 2014-15 record
Broke previous record by more than 2°F
Set new all-time warmest winter
Set new all-time warmest winter
Dallas had 16 days reaching 80°F — most ever in winter
Broke previous record by more than 2°F. Salt Lake City had least snowy winter on record
Set new all-time warmest winter
Five more states had their second-warmest winter on record. Sixteen states total ranked in the top 10. Eleven states also set records for warmest average maximum temperatures.
City Records: Where Winter Was Warmest
I pulled winter averages (December through February) for cities across the record-breaking states. Albuquerque's margin is the most striking — nearly 3°F above its previous warmest winter, which is a massive departure for a 3-month average. Phoenix was so warm that typical “winter” highs felt more like early April.
| City | Winter Avg | Prev. Record | Year | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque, NM | 46.0°F | 43.1°F | 1994-95 | +2.9°F |
| Phoenix, AZ | 64.0°F | 61.3°F | 2024-25 | +2.7°F |
| Salt Lake City, UT | 40.7°F | 38.5°F | 2014-15 | +2.2°F |
| Las Vegas, NV | 55.3°F | 54.6°F | 2014-15 | +0.7°F |
| Denver, CO | 39.6°F | 40.1°F | 1933-34 | -0.5°F |
Temperature data from NOAA GHCN-Daily stations. Winter defined as December 2025 + January-February 2026.
Notable: Dallas/Fort Worth
Dallas recorded 16 days with maximum temperatures reaching at least 80°F during winter — the highest seasonal total since records began in 1898. That's about 60% above the previous record set in 2016-17. If you're in Dallas and felt like winter never really showed up, the data confirms you weren't imagining it.
See Dallas weather history →The Other Side: Eastern Cold Snap
If you lived east of the Mississippi, you might be reading this thinking “what warmth?” Fair. From January 20 to February 4, a deep Arctic outbreak sent temperatures plunging across the Northeast and Midwest. Eight states from Ohio to Massachusetts saw below-average winter temperatures. Providence, Rhode Island recorded a preliminary all-time snowfall record of 37.9 inches from a single storm on February 22-24.
But here's the thing Yale meteorologist Jeff Masters pointed out: the eastern cold “was very notable” but “the total duration for the whole winter, not so much.” In other words, a two-week blast was dramatic, but it wasn't enough to offset three months of Western warmth. No station with a long period of records set an all-time coldest winter — 25 to 45 winters since 1895 were each colder for those eastern states.
106°F in February: The Hottest Winter Temperature in US History
On February 26, 2026, the weather station at Falcon Dam in South Texas registered 106°F. That's the highest temperature ever recorded during meteorological winter (December through February) anywhere in the United States. The previous record — 104°F set in Rio Grande City in 1902 — stood for 124 years. Typical late-February highs in that area run in the upper 70s. Triple-digit heat in winter, even in South Texas, is rare enough to be genuinely shocking.
See Texas temperature records →The Driest Winter in 45 Years
The warmth came with a price. Winter 2025-26 was the fifth-driest on record nationally, with just 4.95 inches of precipitation. Nineteen states recorded a top-10 driest winter. The Midwest saw just 61% of normal precipitation (7th driest on record), and the Northeast managed only 71% (8th driest).
Western mountain snowpack was at 25-50% of average by early March. Denver had logged only 6.8 inches of snow through early January — the fifth-lowest total in 144 years. Salt Lake City had its least snowy winter on record. The drought expanded about 10 percentage points during February alone, climbing from ~40% coverage to nearly 55% by early March. That has serious implications for wildfire season and western water supplies later in 2026.
The Bigger Picture: Winters Are Warming Fastest
Winter 2025-26 didn't happen in isolation. Over the past 50 years, winter temperatures across the Lower 48 have warmed 3.95°F (2.19°C) — significantly more than any other season. For 76% of US locations analyzed by Climate Central, winter is the fastest-warming season.
Some data points that stand out:
- •86% of 244 US cities now experience more extremely warm winter days than in the 1970s, with an average increase of 6 additional extremely warm days per location.
- •Freezing nights have declined across 210 US locations, with an average reduction of 15 fewer freezing nights compared to the early 1970s.
- •This winter occurred during a La Niña pattern, which historically brings cooler-than-average conditions. As researcher Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Center noted: “The heat waves across much of the oceans have become larger and stronger, so the influence of La Niña is being overwhelmed.”
- •585 counties — home to more than 116 million people (roughly a third of the US) — experienced their warmest winter on record for daytime high temperatures.
Data Sources & Methodology
National statistics in this article come from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information February 2026 Climate Report. City-level temperature records are sourced from NOAA GHCN-Daily observations and state climate reports. “Winter” refers to meteorological winter: December 2025, January 2026, and February 2026. All comparisons use the 131-year record beginning in 1895. Additional context from Yale Climate Connections, Climate Central, and state climatology offices.
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