2026 Is on Track to Be the Hottest Year in US History
Every rolling 12-month window since April 2025 has been the warmest on record for the contiguous United States. March 2026 posted the largest temperature departure of any month in 132 years — 9.35°F above the 20th-century average. Eighteen states have already set new monthly records through April. And with ECMWF projecting 100% probability of a Super El Niño by November, the second half of 2026 will almost certainly push temperatures higher.
By WeatherOnThisDay Research Team. Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 139M+ historical observations. Sources cited inline.
The 2026 Scorecard: Four Months, 18 State Records
I've been tracking US temperature records since we built this site's database of 139 million NOAA observations. I've never seen a year start like 2026. In the first four months, more states set monthly records than in any comparable period I can find in the data. Here's the month-by-month breakdown, straight from NOAA NCEI's monthly climate reports:
| Month | Avg Temp | Departure | Rank | State Records |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 33.2°F | +3.1°F | Warmest third | — |
| February | 40.4°F | +6.6°F | Top 10 | 7 |
| March | 50.85°F | +9.35°F | #1 all-time | 10 |
| April | 54.79°F | +3.75°F | #3 all-time | 8 |
| Jan–Apr Total | — | +5.7°F avg | Record pace | 25 |
Source: NOAA NCEI April 2026 Climate Report. State record counts are statewide monthly records.
March 2026: The Month That Broke the Scale
March 2026 wasn't just the hottest March on record. It posted the largest temperature departure of any month in the entire 132-year US climate record — 9.35°F above the 20th-century baseline. The previous record for a monthly departure was March 2012 at 8.9°F. We blew past it.
The numbers are staggering. Over 7,000 daily high temperature records fell. On March 19 alone, 418 daily records and 127 monthly records were broken. Martinez Lake, Arizona hit 112°F — shattering the national March record of 108°F that had stood since 1954. Ten states set their hottest March ever. And 1,432 counties — over half the land area of the contiguous US — saw their single warmest March day on record.
World Weather Attribution scientists concluded this heat was “virtually impossible without climate change,” estimating it added 4.7–7.2°F to the event. We covered this in depth in our March 2026 heat wave analysis.
April 2026: The Heat Shifted East — and Broke 130-Year Records
March's heat was concentrated in the West. April's shifted to the heart of the country. The CONUS averaged 54.79°F — 3.75°F above the 20th-century baseline, ranking as the third-warmest April in 132 years and the warmest since 2006.
What stands out: eight states set statewide April records, and three of them — Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia — broke records that had stood since 1896. Not by a tenth of a degree. By more than 1°F, exceeding their 20th-century April averages by over 8°F. In climatology, that's enormous.
Over 700 counties and 50 million people experienced record-warm conditions in April. And critically, the May 2025–April 2026 period replaced the Apr 2025–Mar 2026 span as the warmest 12-month period ever recorded for the CONUS. Every month, the record rolls forward.
May 2026: Phoenix 115°F, Palm Springs 118°F — Records Falling Before Summer
NOAA hasn't published the official May 2026 national report yet, but the raw station data tells the story. Phoenix hit 115°F on May 8 — the earliest 115°F reading in Arizona history. Palm Springs reached 118°F on May 10, breaking the May record by 3°F. Las Vegas hit 112°F on May 9 — its earliest 110°F+ reading ever.
The Washington Post reported 22 states under extreme heat, with 61 million people facing 90°F+ temperatures in mid-May. We tracked these developments against our state-by-state all-time heat records — Arizona's all-time high of 128°F (Lake Havasu, 1994) isn't threatened yet, but we're breaking records for how early extreme heat arrives, which matters more for infrastructure, water supply, and public health.
Where 2026 Stands: Top 10 Hottest Years in US History
Here are the 10 warmest years for the contiguous US since NOAA records began in 1895. Nine of the ten have occurred since 2006. The benchmark to beat is 2024, which averaged 55.5°F — a full 3.5°F above the 20th-century baseline.
| Rank | Year | Avg Temp (°F) | Departure |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2024 | 55.5°F | +3.5°F |
| #2 | 2012 | 55.3°F | +3.3°F |
| #3 | 2016 | 54.9°F | +2.9°F |
| #4 | 2025 | 54.7°F | +2.7°F |
| #5 | 2023 | 54.5°F | +2.5°F |
| #6 | 2021 | 54.5°F | +2.5°F |
| #7 | 2017 | 54.4°F | +2.4°F |
| #8 | 2015 | 54.4°F | +2.4°F |
| #9 | 2006 | 54.3°F | +2.3°F |
| #10 | 2020 | 54.2°F | +2.2°F |
Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Rankings for CONUS only. Global rankings differ.
NOAA's statistical analysis says it's “very likely” 2026 will rank in the top 5 warmest years. That assessment was made before factoring in El Niño, which is now virtually certain. With El Niño's warming added, a top-2 finish — challenging 2024's record — is plausible.
Three Forces Driving 2026's Heat
1. Super El Niño — 100% Probability by November
This is the accelerant. NOAA gives 82% probability of El Niño by May–July and 96% by winter 2026-27. But the European Centre (ECMWF) is more aggressive — their May update shows 100% probability of a Super El Niño by November, with central Pacific SST anomalies projected at +2.7°C. That would approach the all-time record set in 1877–78. We're tracking this in detail in our El Niño 2026 forecast.
El Niño's peak effect on US temperatures typically arrives 3–6 months after the tropical Pacific warms. That means late 2026 through early 2027 will feel the full impact. Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth told Carbon Brief that a strong El Niño would “substantially increase the chance that 2027 will be the warmest year on record.”
2. Historic Drought — 61% of the Lower 48
As of May 26, 2026, the US Drought Monitor shows 61% of the lower 48 states in drought (D1 or worse). January through April was the second-driest such period on record, at 79% of average precipitation. Virginia Tech drought researcher called it the worst in decades.
Why this matters for temperature: dry soil heats faster than moist soil. Water absorbs heat (that's why coastal cities are cooler in summer). When there's no moisture to evaporate, incoming solar energy goes directly into heating the ground and air. Drought doesn't just correlate with heat — it amplifies it.
3. The Baseline Has Shifted
Something that gets lost in “hottest year” headlines: the baseline keeps moving. The ratio of record highs to record lows in the US has shifted from roughly 1:1 in the 1950s to about 6:1 today, as we detailed in our record low temperature analysis. We're not just having occasional hot years — the floor has risen. Nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2006. The 2024 record wasn't a fluke; it was the trend.
Every State That Set a Monthly Record in 2026
Eighteen states set statewide monthly temperature records in just the first four months of 2026. The geographic pattern shifted dramatically: February and March records concentrated in the West and Southern Plains, while April's records moved into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
| State | Record Month(s) | Notable Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Feb, Mar | Phoenix 115°F in May — earliest ever. March 112°F national record. |
| California | Mar | Squaw Lake tied 112°F national March record. Palm Springs 118°F in May. |
| Colorado | Feb, Mar | Set statewide records in back-to-back months. |
| Idaho | Mar | Warmest March in state history. |
| Illinois | Apr | Broke April record set in 1896 by more than 1°F. |
| Indiana | Apr | Shattered 130-year-old April record from 1896. |
| Kentucky | Apr | Broke April 1896 record by over 1°F. |
| Missouri | Apr | Warmest April on record. |
| Nevada | Mar | Las Vegas 112°F in May — earliest 110°F+ reading ever. |
| New Mexico | Feb, Mar | Set records in Feb and Mar. Wildfire risk elevated. |
| Ohio | Apr | April record. Central and eastern heat concentration. |
| Oklahoma | Feb, Mar | Back-to-back monthly records. |
| Tennessee | Apr | Part of the record-breaking Ohio Valley heat. |
| Texas | Mar | March record. Already above normal for 2026 YTD. |
| Utah | Mar | One of its six warmest starts to the year. |
| Virginia | Apr | Broke April record. 50M+ people affected regionally. |
| West Virginia | Apr | April 1896 record exceeded by more than 1°F. |
| Wyoming | Mar | Warmest March on record. |
Four states (AZ, CO, NM, OK) set records in multiple months. View detailed records for each state on our state temperature records hub.
What to Expect for the Rest of 2026
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has 40 states under above-normal temperature outlooks through August. AccuWeather's summer forecast predicts extreme heat across the West, with the worst concentrated in California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. We covered the full summer picture in our Summer 2026 Weather Outlook.
Carbon Brief projects 2026 as the second-warmest year globally, with a 19% chance of surpassing 2024 to become the warmest. James Hansen, the climatologist who first warned Congress about global warming in 1988, has gone further — his April 2026 analysis projects 2026 as likely the warmest year in the period of instrumental data.
The wildcard is El Niño timing. If the Super El Niño peaks in late 2026 as ECMWF projects, it'll boost the second half of 2026 but push even more heat into 2027. NPR reported that the La Niña to El Niño transition is itself a destabilizing pattern that amplifies heat extremes during the transition.
2026 Heat Timeline: Key Dates to Watch
The Number Nobody's Talking About: Jan–Mar Was the Driest on Record
Heat gets the headlines. But the precipitation data from 2026 is arguably more alarming. January through March 2026 was the driest such period for the CONUS in 132 years — less than 70% of the 20th-century average. The previous record was from 1910.
January through April was the second-driest on record at 79% of average. As of late May, 69% of winter wheat acres and 25% of corn acres are in drought. The USDA Drought Monitor reports that 77% of the US is abnormally dry or worse, with 2% in “exceptional” drought (D4) — the worst category.
This drought-heat connection creates a feedback loop. Less rain means drier soil, which heats up faster, which raises air temperatures, which increases evaporation and drought. The 2012 record year — currently #2 on our all-time list — was also defined by severe drought that devastated the Corn Belt. The parallel to 2026 is uncomfortable.
US vs. Global: How 2026 Fits the Bigger Picture
Globally, the three warmest years on record are 2024, 2023, and 2025 (in that order), according to Copernicus Climate Change Service. The past three years averaged more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the first time a three-year stretch has exceeded the Paris Agreement threshold.
For 2026, Carbon Brief's best estimate is a global average of 1.47°C above pre-industrial, with a range of 1.37–1.58°C. That would place 2026 as roughly the second-warmest year globally, behind 2024. But this forecast was made before the ECMWF moved to 100% Super El Niño probability — the actual outcome could be warmer.
The US and global records don't always align. The US had its warmest year in 2024; globally, 2024 was also #1. But 2012 — the US's #2 — was only the 10th-warmest globally. Regional weather patterns, especially drought, can push US temperatures out of step with the global average. That's part of why the 2026 drought is so significant: it's a uniquely American amplifier.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is 2026 the hottest year on record in the US?
Not yet officially — the year isn't over. But every rolling 12-month period since April 2025 has been the warmest on record for the contiguous US (since 1895). NOAA says it's "very likely" 2026 will finish in the top 5, and Super El Niño development could push it into the top 2.
How many states have set temperature records in 2026?
Eighteen states set statewide monthly temperature records through April: AZ, CA, CO, ID, IL, IN, KY, MO, NV, NM, OH, OK, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, and WY. Four states (AZ, CO, NM, OK) set records in multiple months.
How does 2026 compare to 2024?
2024 holds the all-time US record at 55.5°F average (3.5°F above baseline). Through April 2026, the year-to-date average is running above 2024's pace, particularly because of the historic March departure. Whether 2026 finishes ahead depends on summer heat and El Niño.
What caused March 2026 to be so hot?
A persistent ridge pattern over the western US, combined with record-low soil moisture and a shifting climate baseline. World Weather Attribution concluded the event was "virtually impossible without climate change," estimating human-caused warming added 4.7-7.2°F.
Will El Niño make 2026 even hotter?
Almost certainly. ECMWF projects 100% probability of Super El Niño by November 2026, with SST anomalies of +2.7°C. El Niño's peak warming effect on US temperatures hits 3-6 months after the tropical Pacific warms, meaning late 2026 through 2027 could see even more records.
Data Sources
Monthly temperature data from NOAA NCEI Monthly Climate Reports (January–April 2026). Annual rankings from NOAA Climate at a Glance. Global temperature data from Copernicus Climate Change Service. ENSO forecasts from NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and ECMWF. Drought data from US Drought Monitor. Daily station records from our archive of 139M+ NOAA GHCN-D observations. Attribution science from World Weather Attribution.
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