2026 Is on Track to Be the Hottest Year in US History

The 2026 Scorecard: Nine Months, the Warmest Year-to-Date on Record

I've been tracking US temperature records since we built this site's database of 139 million NOAA observations, and I've never seen a year like 2026. It started with a ferocious winter and spring — 25 statewide monthly records had fallen by June — and the heat never let go: July was the hottest month ever recorded, August the hottest August, September the hottest September, and the January–September average now sits at #1 in 132 years. Here's the month-by-month breakdown, straight from NOAA NCEI's monthly climate reports:

Source: NOAA NCEI September 2026 Climate Report and monthly reports for prior months. State record counts are statewide monthly records; the January–September average (59.25°F) is the warmest year-to-date in the 132-year record.

March 2026: The Month That Broke the Scale

March 2026 wasn't just the hottest March on record. It posted the largest temperature departure of any month in the entire 132-year US climate record — 9.35°F above the 20th-century baseline. The previous record for a monthly departure was March 2012 at 8.9°F. We blew past it.

The numbers are staggering. Over 7,000 daily high temperature records fell. On March 19 alone, 418 daily records and 127 monthly records were broken. Martinez Lake, Arizona hit 112°F — shattering the national March record of 108°F that had stood since 1954. Ten states set their hottest March ever. And 1,432 counties — over half the land area of the contiguous US — saw their single warmest March day on record.

World Weather Attribution scientists concluded this heat was “virtually impossible without climate change,” estimating it added 4.7–7.2°F to the event. We covered this in depth in our March 2026 heat wave analysis.

April 2026: The Heat Shifted East — and Broke 130-Year Records

March's heat was concentrated in the West. April's shifted to the heart of the country. The CONUS averaged 54.79°F — 3.75°F above the 20th-century baseline, ranking as the third-warmest April in 132 years and the warmest since 2006.

What stands out: eight states set statewide April records, and three of them — Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia — broke records that had stood since 1896. Not by a tenth of a degree. By more than 1°F, exceeding their 20th-century April averages by over 8°F. In climatology, that's enormous.

Over 700 counties and 50 million people experienced record-warm conditions in April. And critically, the May 2025–April 2026 period replaced the Apr 2025–Mar 2026 span as the warmest 12-month period ever recorded for the CONUS. Every month, the record rolls forward.

May 2026: Phoenix 115°F, Palm Springs 118°F — Records Falling Before Summer

NOAA has since published the official numbers: the contiguous US averaged 61.7°F in May, 1.5°F above the 20th-century average — in the warmest third of the 132-year record, and part of the nation's second-warmest spring on record. Nationally it was a step down from the record-shattering spring months, but the Southwest never let up. Phoenix hit 115°F on May 8 — the earliest 115°F reading in Arizona history. Palm Springs reached 118°F on May 10, breaking the May record by 3°F. Las Vegas hit 112°F on May 9 — its earliest 110°F+ reading ever.

The Washington Post reported 22 states under extreme heat, with 61 million people facing 90°F+ temperatures in mid-May. We tracked these developments against our state-by-state all-time heat records — Arizona's all-time high of 128°F (Lake Havasu, 1994) isn't threatened yet, but we're breaking records for how early extreme heat arrives, which matters more for infrastructure, water supply, and public health.

June 2026: The First Half Closes as the 2nd-Warmest on Record

June brought the year's clearest verdict. The contiguous US averaged 70.6°F, 2.2°F above the 20th-century average — again in the warmest third of the record. That closed out a first half of 2026 that NOAA ranks as the second-warmest January–June on record, more than 4°F above average and trailing only the drought-scorched 2012. It also extended a streak that's easy to lose in the month-to-month noise: the contiguous US has now logged 51 consecutive months above average, and the 12-month period ending in June was the warmest such stretch ever recorded.

The heat wasn't evenly spread. The West and Southwest posted their warmest first six months on record — Texas, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, California, and Colorado each ran 4.8°F to 6.7°F above average for the half-year. In June itself, the Southwest tied its fifth-warmest on record (+4.9°F), nine states landed in their top ten, and Rhode Island of all places posted its warmest June daytime highs on record — average highs of 80.7°F, the first June above 80°F there since 1943.

The other half of the story is what didn't fall: rain. Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado took in only about half to two-thirds of their normal year-to-date precipitation, and the Southwest as a whole sat under 70 percent of average. That heat-plus-drought pairing is exactly the setup we tracked in our 2026 US drought analysis — and it's the same signature that made the Southwest's early-season heat so relentless. Dry ground heats faster; hot air dries the ground further. In 2026 the two have been feeding each other since January.

Summer 2026 Update: The Heat Moved North, Then South — and Kept Breaking Records

I keep a running count of every daily high- and low-temperature record our station network breaks. Here is the number that captures 2026 in one line: from late May through October 13, US stations set 13,879 daily heat records against just 1,883 cold records — better than seven to one. And the gap kept widening as the year went on. June ran about even-tempered by comparison (1,035 heat records to 805 cold); July logged 2,886 daily heat records against 394 cold; August pushed to 3,588 against 343 (roughly ten to one); September added a full 3,467 against just 241 — better than 14 to one — and the first 13 days of October ran an almost absurd 2,891 to 28, as the heat refused to break with the calendar.

What changed through the season was the map. The record-shattering warmth of February through April was a Western and Ohio-Valley story. By midsummer the center of the heat had migrated into the Northern Rockies and High Plains: in July, Wyoming (308), Colorado (299), Montana (261), Idaho (171) and Utah (155) led the country in daily heat records — states that usually cool off at night. August stayed Rockies-heavy (Colorado alone broke 713 daily records) but began spilling into Texas (304) and the Southwest. In September the core swung into the South-Central Plains and mid-South — Missouri (443), Texas (441), Arkansas (317), Tennessee (279) and Kansas (263) — a humid heat that kept overnight lows from falling and gave eight states their warmest September on record. Then in October the warmth rotated back to the Interior West and Northwest, with Idaho (368), Wyoming (295) and Oregon (278) leading the first two weeks.

These weren't records nudged by a tenth of a degree. On July 12, Miles City, Montana hit 114.9°F — beating its previous daily record by a full 12°F. Nearby Mildred, Montana ran 13°F past its old mark, and Farson, Wyoming 13.1°F past its own. Margins that large are how you know a heat dome parked over a region that rarely sees this kind of air. The desert Southwest, meanwhile, never stopped: Phoenix reached 116.9°F on July 24, El Centro, California matched it on July 25, and both Tacna, Arizona and Laughlin, Nevada touched 120°F in the first week of August. We broke the mid-July surge down in our July 2026 heat recap and the late-month push in our late-July heat wave analysis.

Source: our daily_records_broken archive derived from NOAA GHCN-D daily observations (station period of record, 33–56 years for the stations cited), analyzed October 17, 2026. Record counts cover the window our daily tracker has run (from May 30, 2026).

Where 2026 Stands: Top 10 Hottest Years in US History

Here are the 10 warmest years for the contiguous US since NOAA records began in 1895. Nine of the ten have occurred since 2006. The benchmark to beat is 2024, which averaged 55.5°F — a full 3.5°F above the 20th-century baseline.

Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Rankings for CONUS only. Global rankings differ.

NOAA's statistical analysis says it's “very likely” 2026 will rank in the top 5 warmest years. That assessment was made before factoring in El Niño, which is now virtually certain. With El Niño's warming added, a top-2 finish — challenging 2024's record — is plausible.

Three Forces Driving 2026's Heat

Every State That Set a Monthly Record in 2026

Eighteen states set statewide monthly temperature records in just the first four months of 2026. The geographic pattern shifted dramatically: February and March records concentrated in the West and Southern Plains, while April's records moved into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Four states (AZ, CO, NM, OK) set records in multiple months. View detailed records for each state on our state temperature records hub.

What to Expect for the Rest of 2026

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now favors above-normal warmth across much of the country into winter, consistent with a strong El Niño. We broke down what a Super El Niño does to US winters, city by city, in our winter 2026-2027 outlook — and whether it means more or less snow for your city in our El Niño snow analysis.

Through September, NOAA NCEI and Copernicus both have 2026 running as the second-warmest year globally, behind only 2024, and NOAA calls it very likely that 2026 finishes among the five warmest years on record, most probably the second-warmest. James Hansen, the climatologist who first warned Congress about global warming in 1988, has gone further — his April 2026 analysis projects 2026 as likely the warmest year in the period of instrumental data.

The wildcard now is how strong the El Niño gets. It is already in place and strengthening; NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives it better than an 83% chance of reaching historic (very strong) strength this winter. A peak around the turn of the year would keep lifting global temperatures into 2027 even as it does so — El Niño releases ocean heat to the atmosphere, so its warmest fingerprint on the record usually shows up the year after it peaks.

The Number Nobody's Talking About: Jan–Mar Was the Driest on Record

Heat gets the headlines. But the precipitation data from 2026 is arguably more alarming. January through March 2026 was the driest such period for the CONUS in 132 years — less than 70% of the 20th-century average. The previous record was from 1910.

January through April was the second-driest on record at 79% of average. As of late May, 69% of winter wheat acres and 25% of corn acres are in drought. The USDA Drought Monitor reports that 77% of the US is abnormally dry or worse, with 2% in “exceptional” drought (D4) — the worst category.

This drought-heat connection creates a feedback loop. Less rain means drier soil, which heats up faster, which raises air temperatures, which increases evaporation and drought. The 2012 record year — currently #2 on our all-time list — was also defined by severe drought that devastated the Corn Belt. The parallel to 2026 is uncomfortable.

US vs. Global: How 2026 Fits the Bigger Picture

Globally, the three warmest years on record are 2024, 2023, and 2025 (in that order), according to Copernicus Climate Change Service. The past three years averaged more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the first time a three-year stretch has exceeded the Paris Agreement threshold.

Through September 2026, the Copernicus Climate Change Service has the year running second-warmest globally, behind only 2024 and ahead of 2023 and 2025. September itself ran 1.63°C above the pre-industrial average — the second month in a row back above the 1.5°C Paris threshold — and global ocean temperatures set a record high for any month on record for the fourth straight month, as the El Niño strengthened. NOAA calls it very likely that 2026 finishes among the five warmest years, most probably the second-warmest.

The US and global records don't always align. The US had its warmest year in 2024; globally, 2024 was also #1. But 2012 — the US's #2 — was only the 10th-warmest globally. Regional weather patterns, especially drought, can push US temperatures out of step with the global average. That's part of why the 2026 drought is so significant: it's a uniquely American amplifier.

Frequently Asked Questions

Data Sources

Monthly temperature data from NOAA NCEI Monthly Climate Reports (January–April 2026). Annual rankings from NOAA Climate at a Glance. Global temperature data from Copernicus Climate Change Service. ENSO forecasts from NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and ECMWF. Drought data from US Drought Monitor. Daily station records — including the summer 2026 heat-vs-cold record tally — from our archive of 139M+ NOAA GHCN-D observations (daily_records_broken, analyzed October 17, 2026). Attribution science from World Weather Attribution.

Related Analysis

Explore State Temperature Records

View all-time highs, lows, and monthly records for each state that set a record in 2026: