US Drought 2026: How Bad It Is, and the Driest States
Nearly 50% of the country is in drought as of late September — up, not down, and still climbing. And the deepest rainfall deficits of 2026 aren't in the desert; they're across the Southeast and Mid-South, led by Arkansas. We ranked every state's shortfall against 139 million NOAA daily records.
As of the September 29, 2026 US Drought Monitor, about 49.8% of the United States — and roughly 59% of the Lower 48 — is in drought, affecting about 111.6 million people across 42 states. That top-line number has climbed all year, not eased — and it still buries the year's real surprise.
Because the headline map hides the more interesting story of 2026, and it's one you won't find on the official pages: the biggest rainfall deficits this year aren't in Nevada or Arizona, where dryness is the baseline. They're across the Southeast and Mid-South. We pulled every state's precipitation for January 1 through October 3 straight from NOAA station records and measured it against the last ten years. Arkansas is down more than 15 inches — the worst shortfall in the country. North Carolina is down 12, and South Carolina, Tennessee and Louisiana are each down about 10. Those are wet states that simply got skipped by the rain — a different, faster kind of drought than the slow desert grind out West. (Arizona, Colorado and Mississippi, all on this list in late summer, have since climbed out as monsoon and tropical rains arrived.)
How Bad Is It Right Now?
The official gauge is the US Drought Monitor, updated every Thursday by NOAA, the USDA and the University of Nebraska. Its September 29 map put 49.8% of the US and Puerto Rico, and 59.4% of the Lower 48, in drought — up from 58.6% of the Lower 48 three weeks earlier. About 111.6 million people across 42 states now live under some level of drought, and the footprint has kept expanding rather than receding.
NOAA's drought.gov summary through late September had the worst conditions anchored across the Southeast and Mid-South even as parts of the interior West and Lower Mississippi Valley eased as monsoon and tropical rains arrived. That worsening core — Arkansas and the Carolinas, Tennessee and Louisiana — is exactly where our own independent rainfall-deficit ranking below puts the deepest holes. When the official monitor and a raw rain-gauge tally agree, you can trust the signal.
Latest update — early October 2026
The drought is still expanding. On the September 29 map, Lower-48 coverage rose to 59.4% (from 58.6% three weeks earlier), and the number of Americans living in drought climbed to about 111.6 million, with 42 states now in moderate drought (D1) or worse. Our own station-by-station rainfall tally below, now run through October 3, shows the Southeast and Mid-South — not the West — carrying the deepest deficits. Source: US Drought Monitor, valid September 29, 2026.
The Driest States of 2026 So Far, Ranked
Ranked by percent of normal rainfall for January 1 through October 3, driest first, from our NOAA station data. “Deficit” is how many inches short of the 2015–2024 average each state is running. This is a “driest states of 2026” list — a deficit ranking — which is a very different thing from the driest places in America in an average year. For the long view, see the worst droughts in US history, from the Dust Bowl to today’s Southwest megadrought.
| State | 2026 rain* | Normal | Deficit | % of normal | What's going on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 26.5" | 42.0" | −15.5" | 63% | Still the epicenter of the 2026 drought nine months in: driest in the country by share of normal AND the single biggest raw shortfall — more than 15 inches of rain that never fell. The fall rains still haven’t come. |
| North Carolina | 31.3" | 43.6" | −12.3" | 72% | The most anomalous drought in the East, and it has deepened: a rain-soaked state now down more than 12 inches, worse than it was in late summer. |
| South Carolina | 29.0" | 39.1" | −10.2" | 74% | Part of the deep Southeast hole — a normally-humid state running ten inches short on the year. |
| Nevada | 7.1" | 9.5" | −2.4" | 75% | The driest state in absolute terms in any year — running under even its own meager normal. |
| California | 10.8" | 14.4" | −3.6" | 75% | A drier-than-normal wet season leaves reservoirs and hillsides primed deep into fire season. |
| Tennessee | 34.9" | 44.9" | −10.0" | 78% | Now part of the Mid-South drought core — a humid state ten inches behind for the year. |
| Virginia | 29.2" | 37.2" | −8.0" | 78% | The northern edge of the Mid-Atlantic dry spell, eight inches short of a normal nine months. |
| Louisiana | 38.0" | 48.0" | −10.0" | 79% | The Lower Mississippi Valley still ran ten inches short through early October — measured before the late-October Gulf rains arrived. |
| Wyoming | 11.3" | 13.9" | −2.6" | 81% | High-plains and mountain deficit that held through the summer. |
| Maryland | 28.4" | 35.2" | −6.7" | 81% | Part of the Mid-Atlantic dry spell, nearly seven inches short. |
| Oregon | 18.2" | 22.5" | −4.3" | 81% | A dry Pacific Northwest — easing slightly this fall but still four inches short on the year. |
| Texas | 19.4" | 23.7" | −4.3" | 82% | Southern Plains dryness, running four inches behind a normal year. |
*Cumulative rainfall January 1 – October 3, 2026, averaged across each state's well-covered NOAA stations (those reporting at least 249 of the ~276 days). “Normal” is the same window averaged over 2015–2024 for the same stations. See the methodology note at the end. Query run October 7, 2026.
There Are Really Two Droughts in 2026
Read the table carefully and you'll see it splits into two very different stories.
The desert deficit. Nevada (74% of normal), Arizona (78%), New Mexico (79%) and Utah are dry — but they're dry every year, and the first half of the year is their arid season anyway, before the summer monsoon arrives. Arizona is a telling case: it was the driest state in the country by percent back in spring, but the monsoon has since delivered, pulling it back to 78% of normal — and its shortfall is only about two inches in raw terms, because there isn't much rain to miss. This is the chronic, decades-long dryness of the West — part of a 21st-century megadrought that a 2022 study in Nature Climate Change found is the driest 22-year stretch the Southwest has seen in roughly 1,200 years.
The Southeast hole. This is the surprise, and it has only deepened through the summer. Arkansas (down 15.4 inches), North Carolina (down 10.1), South Carolina (down 9.5), Mississippi (down 9.5), Tennessee (down 8.0) and Virginia (down 7.2) are all normally humid, rain-soaked states — and they've each missed the better part of a foot of rain over eight months. Because they start from a high baseline, their percent deficit looks similar to the desert's, but the volume of missing water is enormous. This is the signature of a flash drought: a wet region that falls far behind fast, when weeks of skipped storms meet a hot, thirsty atmosphere. You can watch a place's recent slide yourself — Charlotte, Raleigh, Nashville and Little Rock all have full precipitation histories on their city pages.
One honest caveat, because it actually strengthens the point: our “normal” here is the 2015–2024 average, and that decade was itself a drought-heavy stretch for the West. So the desert's deficit is understated against a longer-term normal — while the Southeast, whose baseline decade was near-average, is genuinely, unusually short.
Drought and Wildfire: the Same Map
Drought doesn't light fires, but it loads the gun. Every inch of missing rain dries out grass, brush and timber, dropping fuel moisture until a single spark — lightning, a dragging chain, a downed line — can run. That's why the driest states out West line up so tightly with the ones burning: California (74% of normal) heads into late summer with hills already cured, and the interior West is primed. You can see where the fires actually are right now on our live wildfire tracker, and read how a strong El Niño is shaping this year's fire risk in our 2026 wildfire season analysis.
The Southeast's flash drought carries its own fire risk — the Carolinas saw a rash of wildfires during past dry springs — but its bigger near-term bite is agricultural: pasture stress, low farm ponds, and rivers running thin right through growing season.
How 2026 Stacks Up Against the Big Ones
At nearly 50% of the country — and 59% of the Lower 48 — in drought, 2026 is a serious year but not a record-shattering one. For scale: at the peak of the 2012 drought — the worst since the Dust Bowl — the US Drought Monitor had roughly two-thirds of the Lower 48 in drought, and it devastated the Corn Belt. The 1930s Dust Bowl itself predates our daily records, which begin around 1950, so we lean on NOAA's historical reconstructions for that era. And the ongoing Southwest megadrought, running since 2000, is the driest multi-decade stretch in twelve centuries even if any single year in it looks unremarkable.
What makes 2026 stand out isn't the total — it's the geography. Drought years are usually a Western story. This one has planted its deepest deficits in the humid Southeast, which is why it's catching farmers and water managers there off guard.
Will El Niño Break It?
Maybe — and the timing could be good for the states hurting most. A strong El Niño tends to drag a wetter, more active storm track across the southern tier of the country in winter, which historically eases drought across the South and Southwest. The Pacific Northwest usually goes the other way, drier. The developing 2026 super El Niño — which forecasters now rate as potentially one of the strongest on record — is a real reason the coming winter could help refill Arkansas, the Carolinas and the Southern Plains.
Between now and then, summer relief rides on two things: the Southwest monsoon for the desert, and tropical systems for the Southeast — a single stalled tropical downpour can erase months of deficit in a wet state (and cause flooding in the process). Track the season on our 2026 hurricane season page. For the long-term picture, the driest cities in America and the rainiest ones show where the wet-and-dry lines usually fall.
Check the rain history for any US city
Want to know how far behind your own town is? Our historical weather tool pulls decades of daily precipitation for more than 300 US cities — look up Phoenix, Denver, Richmond or anywhere else.
Look up any city's weather history →Frequently Asked Questions
How much of the US is in drought right now?
As of the September 29, 2026 US Drought Monitor, about 49.8% of the US and Puerto Rico and roughly 59.4% of the Lower 48 are in drought (D1 or worse), affecting about 111.6 million people across 42 states. It has kept worsening, not eased — coverage has climbed steadily all year, with the Southeast and Mid-South carrying the deepest rainfall deficits.
What is the driest state in 2026?
Arkansas, both ways: driest by share of normal (about 63%, Jan 1–Oct 3) and the biggest deficit in actual inches, down more than 15 inches. The Carolinas, Tennessee and Louisiana follow — wet states each running 10 to 12 inches short.
Does drought cause wildfires?
Drought doesn't start fires, but it primes the land: rainfall deficits dry out fuels so any ignition spreads faster and hotter. That's why the driest Western states line up with the most active fire seasons — see our live wildfire tracker.
What is a flash drought?
A drought that develops in weeks rather than months, when little rain combines with heat and wind that pull moisture from the soil fast. Much of the Southeast's 2026 dryness is exactly this — a wet region that fell far behind quickly.
Will El Niño end the drought?
It could ease parts of it. A strong El Niño usually brings a wetter winter to the southern US, which historically helps the South and Southwest (while leaving the Pacific Northwest drier). The developing 2026 super El Niño is a reason the coming winter could refill the Southeast and Southern Plains.
Methodology
State deficits were computed from our archive of NOAA GHCN-Daily records (the same 139-million-row dataset behind our city weather-history tool). For each state we summed precipitation over January 1 – October 3, 2026 for every station reporting at least 249 of the ~276 days, averaged those station totals to a state figure, and compared it to the same calendar window averaged over 2015–2024 for the same stations. States needed at least eight qualifying stations to be ranked. Precipitation is stored in tenths of a millimeter (inches = value ÷ 254). “% of normal” is measured against the 2015–2024 mean — a 10-year reference, not the official 1991–2020 NOAA normal, which shifts some Western figures. Official drought-coverage percentages, the worst-hit-states list, and the megadrought finding are from the US Drought Monitor, NOAA drought.gov, and Williams et al. (2022), Nature Climate Change. Query run August 24, 2026.