The Worst Winters in US History, Ranked by the Data
Everyone remembers the winter that broke them. But which one was actually the worst? We ranked every US winter since 1971 by how far below normal the temperature ran — and the answer isn't the polar-vortex winter people expect.
The single worst winter of the modern American record was 1978-79. Across nearly 4,700 long-running weather stations, that winter's average low temperatures ran 6.6°F below the 1991–2020 normal — a colder departure than the famous 2013-14 “polar vortex” winter, which comes in fifth. Behind it sit two more of the brutal late-1970s winters, 1976-77 and 1977-78, that buried Buffalo and pushed snow into Florida.
That ranking is the whole point of this page. Most “worst winter” lists you'll find rank individual storms, or they lean on memory and vibes. We ranked whole seasons using actual station data — and it turns out the winters people feel were worst (2013-14, the 2021 Texas freeze) aren't the ones the thermometer agrees with.
How we ranked them
For every winter (December–February) since 1971 we took each weather station's average daily low temperature and compared it to that same station's own 1991–2020 average. Then we averaged those departures across every long-record station. Comparing each station to itself matters: the NOAA network has nearly doubled in size since the 1970s, so a raw count of freezing days would make recent winters look worse than they were. The anomaly method cancels that out. Figures come from NOAA daily records, queried August 2026. Storm details and pre-1970 winters are from the cited NWS, NCEI and historical sources linked below.
The Coldest US Winters Since 1971, Ranked
Ranked by how far the average winter low ran below the 1991–2020 normal. The 1970s own the top three — a fact that surprises almost everyone, because most people alive today remember 2013-14 or 2021 as “the bad one.”
| # | Winter | Avg low vs normal | Region hit hardest | Standout event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1978-79 | −6.6°F | Midwest & Great Lakes | January 1979 blizzard; Chicago's 2nd-coldest winter on record (89.7" of snow) |
| 2 | 1976-77 | −5.4°F | Great Lakes to the Deep South | Blizzard of '77 — Buffalo's coldest January ever (13.8°F avg); snow reached Florida |
| 3 | 1977-78 | −4.2°F | Ohio Valley & Northeast | Great Blizzard of January 1978 and the February 1978 Northeast blizzard |
| 4 | 1981-82 | −3.3°F | Upper Midwest | The January 1982 Arctic outbreak ("Cold Sunday") and Chicago blizzard |
| 5 | 2013-14 | −3.1°F | Midwest & Northeast | The "polar vortex" winter that put the phrase into everyday use |
| 6 | 1983-84 | −2.9°F | Nationwide | One of the coldest Decembers on record (December 1983 Arctic outbreak) |
| 7 | 1984-85 | −2.9°F | Southeast | January 1985 Arctic outbreak; record cold into Florida's citrus belt |
| 8 | 2000-01 | −2.4°F | Northern & central Plains | A cold, snowy late-2000 start after a run of mild winters |
| 9 | 2010-11 | −2.3°F | Central US | The Groundhog Day Blizzard (Feb 1–2, 2011) |
| 10 | 1992-93 | −2.1°F | Eastern US | The March 1993 "Storm of the Century" |
| 11 | 1988-89 | −2.0°F | Northern Plains & West | The February 1989 Arctic outbreak |
| 12 | 2009-10 | −1.9°F | Mid-Atlantic | "Snowmageddon" (February 2010) |
Anomalies are station-normalized DJF minimum-temperature departures from the 1991–2020 normal, from NOAA daily station data (Weather On This Day analysis, 2026). Standout events are illustrative; the ranking itself is by temperature.
A Brutal Storm Is Not a Brutal Winter
Here is the finding that reframes the whole subject. The most destructive cold-weather disaster in modern American history — Winter Storm Uri, February 2021 — happened during a winter that our data grades as almost perfectly average. The 2020-21 season ranks #35 out of 56 nationally, just 0.05°F below normal, and it isn't among Texas's coldest winters either.
How? Uri was a roughly ten-day event. For about a week in mid-February 2021, Arctic air collapsed all the way to the Gulf, Texas's power grid failed, more than 4.5 million homes lost electricity, and Texas confirmed at least 246 deaths. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated $80–130 billion in damage. But the other 80 days of that winter were mild enough to wash the season average back to normal.
That is the difference between a severe winter and a severe storm, and it is why the two belong on different lists. For the storm side of the story — the single events that killed the most people and dropped the most snow — see our companion ranking of the worst blizzards in US history.
Why the 1970s Owned the Top of the List
Three winters in a row — 1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79 — rank in the modern top three, and it wasn't bad luck. From late 1976 a stubborn jet-stream pattern locked a ridge over the West and a deep trough over the East, funneling one Arctic outbreak after another into the central and eastern US. Buffalo recorded its coldest January ever in 1977 (a monthly average of 13.8°F) and never got above freezing all month; snow flurries even reached Miami.
The winter of 1978-79 finished it off. The January 1979 blizzard buried Chicago under 21 inches in two days, part of a record 89.7-inch season, and the city logged its second-coldest winter on record at an 18.4°F average. See how that stacks up in Chicago's climate history and Buffalo's.
The 2013-14 “polar vortex” winter (5th) earns its reputation — it was the coldest winter in two decades for much of the Midwest — but it was a single very cold season, not the front end of a three-year cold spell like the 1970s. And unlike the 1970s, it landed in a climate that had already warmed underneath it, which is exactly why it doesn't rank higher. For the long view of how cold the country can get, see the coldest temperatures ever recorded and America's coldest cities.
The Legendary Winters Our Data Can't Reach
Our station analysis runs back to 1971. Before that, the historical record still points to a handful of winters that were almost certainly worse than anything in the modern era.
1935-36 — the coldest winter ever measured in the interior. December through February of 1935-36 was the coldest DJF on record for the Dakotas, Minnesota and Iowa. On February 15, 1936, Parshall, North Dakota bottomed out at −60°F — still the lowest temperature ever recorded east of the Rockies. The cruel twist: the same region and the same year then produced the deadly 1936 heat wave, when Fargo hit 114°F. See North Dakota's weather records.
1887-88 — the winter of the deadly blizzards. The Schoolhouse Blizzard of January 12, 1888 struck the Plains on a deceptively mild afternoon, killing an estimated 235 people — 213 of them children caught walking home from school. Two months later the Great Blizzard of March 1888 paralyzed the East Coast from Maryland to Maine and killed more than 400. No single US winter has been deadlier.
Worst Winters by State: A Few Standouts
“Worst winter” looks different depending on where you live. A couple of examples from the same station-normalized data:
Texas. Despite the fame of the 2021 freeze, Texas's coldest full winters were 1983-84 (5.3°F below normal), 1977-78, 1978-79 and 1976-77. The 2013-14 polar-vortex winter ties into the top handful too. Uri's 2020-21 season doesn't make the list — see Texas weather records.
The Great Lakes. Buffalo, Chicago and the rest of the snowbelt cluster their worst winters in the late 1970s — the same 1976-79 run that tops the national list. For the states that live with the harshest winters every year, see our ranking of the coldest cities in America and the average temperature of all 50 states.
Are US Winters Getting Milder?
Clearly, yes. Flip our ranking over and the pattern is just as sharp: the mildest winters in the 56-year record are nearly all recent. 2023-24 was the warmest, with average lows running 3.5°F above the 1991–2020 normal, and recent winters like 2019-20 and 2025-26 also rank in the mildest handful. Even the winters that feel cold now — 2013-14, 2020-21 — sit against a baseline that has drifted upward.
That doesn't mean severe winters are finished. A developing strong El Niño is expected to shape the 2026-27 season, and El Niño winters can still deliver sharp regional cold and snow even as the national average stays mild. We track how that plays out in our El Niño 2026 forecast and the record-warm winter that just preceded it, winter 2025-26.
Europe's worst, for comparison. Britain's Big Freeze of 1962-63 was the coldest UK winter since 1740, with snow drifts over 20 feet. In the 350-year Central England record only two winters were colder: 1739-40 and the Great Frost of 1683-84, when the Thames froze solid enough to hold a “frost fair.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the coldest winter in US history?
It depends on how far back you go. In the modern record (since 1971), the winter of 1978-79 was the coldest — average winter low temperatures ran about 6.6°F below the 1991–2020 normal across nearly 4,700 long-record NOAA stations. Going further back, the winter of 1935-36 was the coldest ever measured across the Northern Plains: Parshall, North Dakota fell to −60°F on February 15, 1936, the lowest temperature ever recorded east of the Rocky Mountains.
What was the worst winter storm in US history?
By deaths, the two blizzards of 1888 stand alone: the Schoolhouse Blizzard of January 12, 1888 killed an estimated 235 people (213 of them children) across the Plains, and the Great Blizzard of March 11–14, 1888 killed more than 400 on the East Coast. By cost, February 2021's Winter Storm Uri is the worst — the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas put the damage at $80–130 billion, and Texas confirmed at least 246 deaths.
Are winters in the US getting warmer?
Yes. In our 56-year station record, the mildest winters are nearly all recent. The winter of 2023-24 was the warmest — average lows ran 3.5°F above the 1991–2020 normal — and recent winters like 2019-20 and 2025-26 also rank among the mildest. Cold outbreaks like the 2013-14 polar vortex still occur, but they are becoming the exception rather than the rule.
Was the February 2021 Texas freeze the worst Texas winter ever?
No — and that is the surprising part. Winter Storm Uri (February 2021) was the costliest winter-weather disaster in Texas history, but the winter of 2020-21 as a whole was almost exactly normal: it ranks only #35 of 56 nationally in our data and isn't among Texas's coldest winters. Texas's coldest full winters were 1983-84, 1977-78, 1978-79 and 1976-77. Uri was a catastrophic 10-day event inside an otherwise unremarkable season.