Halloween 2026 Weather Forecast: Rain for Texas, Snow on the Plains, and a Freakishly Warm Midwest
Saturday, October 31 splits the country in two: a wet, stormy half from Texas to the Four Corners, early snow on the northern Plains, and an unseasonably warm half pushing 70s and 80s from the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Here’s the region-by-region forecast — and, because we have 56 years of NOAA Halloween records, whether any of it is actually unusual where you live.
For Halloween — Saturday, October 31, 2026 — forecasters expect rain and thunderstorms across Texas, the lower and middle Mississippi Valley and a soggy Southwest, early-season snow on the northern and central Plains, and unusually warm 70s-to-80s air surging from the Plains into the Great Lakes ahead of the storm. The East Coast stays mostly dry but turns jacket-cold from Detroit to Boston. There is no widespread hard freeze anywhere in the Lower 48. That snapshot is from AccuWeather’s Halloween 2026 outlook and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, as of October 27 — four days out, so the details will shift.
What a four-day forecast can’t tell you is whether this is a weird Halloween for your town. That is where our records come in. In 56 years of NOAA data, Anchorage freezes four Halloweens in five while Dallas drops below freezing on barely 1% of them; measurable snow on October 31 is almost entirely a Northern Plains and interior-West event, headlined by the 8.2 inches that fell on Minneapolis in the 1991 Halloween Blizzard. So when the 2026 forecast calls for Plains snow and a Chicago high in the 70s, it’s worth knowing both are near the edges of what Halloween has ever done.
One storm, a warm half and a cold half
The whole forecast hangs on a single storm system crossing the middle of the country around the holiday. Ahead of it, southerly winds pump warm, moist air north — which is why the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes are forecast to be so mild, with highs forecasters put in the 70s and even 80s. Behind it, colder air spills in, and where that cold air overruns lingering moisture on the northern and central Plains, you get the early snow.
Layered on top is a separate, wetter story in the Southwest. NOAA’s outlook flags a risk of heavy precipitation across Arizona and the lower Four Corners from October 31 into November 2 — and that isn’t hypothetical: Flood Watches and Flood Warnings are already posted across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado this week, the tail of the same wet pattern we tracked in our October Southwest flooding coverage. For the desert, a wet Halloween is the genuinely strange part of this forecast.
The forecast, region by region — and how normal it is
Here is the Halloween 2026 outlook broken down by region, with what our 56-year record says about how often that kind of weather actually turns up on October 31. The left column is the forecast; the right column is the climatology — the gap between them is the story.
| Region | Forecast for Oct 31, 2026 | How often that happens (our NOAA data) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas & south-central Plains | Showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy in south-central Texas | Dallas is wet on ~1 Halloween in 4 (26%); Austin and San Antonio are drier (18–19%). A wet one is a bit above the odds. |
| Southwest & Four Corners | Heavy-precip risk across Arizona and the lower Four Corners (NOAA, Oct 31–Nov 2) | Phoenix sees measurable rain on Halloween just 3% of years, Tucson 5%, Las Vegas 3%. A wet Halloween here is genuinely rare. |
| Northern & central Plains | Up to ~6 inches of early snow possible by Halloween morning behind the system | Denver freezes 52% of Halloween nights but has never recorded measurable snow on Oct 31 at the airport; Minneapolis, 4.5%. |
| Midwest & Great Lakes | Unusually warm ahead of the system — highs reaching the 70s into the Upper Great Lakes | A Chicago high in the 70s would rival its warmest Halloween on record (77°F, 1974); the typical high is 56°F. |
| Lower & middle Mississippi Valley | Wet, with warmth surging to the 80s ahead of the rain | St. Louis is wet ~28% of years; Memphis and Nashville sit in the mid-20s. The 80s warmth would be near-record for the date. |
| Northeast & Mid-Atlantic | Mostly dry but chillier — jackets from Detroit to Boston | Boston is cold (low ≤32°F) only 3% of years and Philadelphia 5%; a chilly-but-dry Halloween is close to the East Coast norm. |
| Pacific Northwest & interior West | Cooler, with mountain snow risk in the Sierra, Klamaths and Rockies | Seattle is the wettest city in our data (wet 62% of Halloweens), Portland 59% — rain here needs no special system. |
| Southeast & Florida | Warm and mainly dry | Miami is 84°F and Orlando 82°F on a typical Halloween; neither has ever been near freezing on Oct 31. |
Forecast column: AccuWeather’s Halloween 2026 outlook and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlook (issued Oct 26, valid Nov 1–5), as of October 27, 2026. Odds column: first-party analysis of NOAA GHCN-Daily airport records for Oct 31, 1970–2025, from our Halloween trick-or-treat odds by city.
The snow threat is real — and rarer than it sounds
“Up to six inches of snow by Halloween morning” is the kind of line that travels fast. It’s plausible on the northern and central Plains behind this system, and the mountains of the Sierra, Klamaths and Rockies can pick up early-season snow any late October. But set it against the record and it’s clearly the exception, not the rule.
Across our 56 years of data, measurable snow actually falling on October 31 is a Northern Plains and interior-West specialty — and even there it’s uncommon. Minneapolis has seen it on just 4.5% of Halloweens; its all-time Halloween snowfall is the 8.2 inches of the 1991 blizzard, a number nothing since has come close to. Chicago’s snowiest Halloween is 3.4 inches (2019). Denver freezes on more than half of Halloween nights yet has never logged measurable snow on October 31 at its airport. The one place where Halloween snow is genuinely routine is Anchorage, which has a 1-in-5 shot at it every year. So if your Plains town does get plowable snow this Halloween, it’s having a top-tier October 31, not a typical one.
The flip side: a Midwest in the 70s
The more unusual half of this forecast might be the warm half. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal temperatures across the Plains, Midwest, South and East, and AccuWeather has highs reaching the 70s as far north as the Upper Great Lakes, with the 80s possible in the Mississippi Valley. For late-October standards that’s striking: a typical Chicago Halloween high is 56°F, and the warmest on record is 77°F, set in 1974. A forecast flirting with the 70s there is brushing up against the city’s warmest Halloween ever.
Down south the warmth is less of a novelty — Dallas averages a 73°F Halloween high and has hit 89°F (1977); Houston has reached 88°F (2004). But a trick-or-treat evening in shirtsleeves across the Corn Belt and Great Lakes is the part of this year worth noticing. You can pull up exactly what your own town did on any past October 31 — record warmth, the 1991 blizzard, a quiet 50-degree evening — with our weather history lookup.
About that Old Farmer’s Almanac snow map
A viral Old Farmer’s Almanac map purporting to show where it will snow on Halloween 2026 made the rounds this week. Enjoy it as seasonal decoration, not a forecast. A long-range almanac issued months ago can’t resolve the position of a storm four days out — and when we tested the almanacs’ own past forecasts against NOAA records, their hit rate landed around a coin flip. For a specific day like Halloween, the short-range forecast from the National Weather Service and the outlets that build on it is the only version worth dressing the kids around.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will it rain on Halloween 2026?
In spots, yes. As of October 27, forecasters expect rain and thunderstorms for Texas, the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, and a soggy Southwest — AccuWeather and the NOAA outlook flag a heavy-rain risk over Arizona and the Four Corners from Oct 31 into Nov 2. Most of the East, Southeast and interior Northwest stay dry. For context, a wet Halloween is normal in Seattle (62% of years) but rare in Phoenix (3%).
Will it snow on Halloween 2026?
Possibly on the northern and central Plains and in the western mountains — AccuWeather notes up to about six inches could accumulate in parts of the Plains and Midwest by Halloween morning behind the storm, with mountain snow in the Sierra, Klamaths and Rockies. Accumulating Halloween snow is rare overall: in 56 years of NOAA records, Minneapolis managed measurable snow on only 4.5% of Halloweens, and its 8.2-inch 1991 Halloween Blizzard is still the benchmark.
How warm will Halloween 2026 be?
Unusually warm for much of the country ahead of the storm. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal temperatures across the Plains, Midwest, South and East, with highs forecast into the 70s as far north as the Upper Great Lakes and the 80s in the Mississippi Valley. A Chicago high in the 70s would approach its warmest Halloween on record (77°F in 1974, versus a typical 56°F).
Where is the coldest weather on Halloween 2026?
Behind the storm and up north. A chillier air mass settles into the Great Lakes and Northeast from Detroit to Boston — jacket weather, not extreme cold. In a normal year the coldest trick-or-treating in the Lower 48 is on the northern Plains and in the Rockies: Denver freezes on 52% of Halloween nights and Fargo 62%. Anchorage, Alaska is the real freezer, below 32°F four years in five.
What to send the kids out in
- Texas, the Southwest and the lower Mississippi Valley: a costume that survives rain, or a quick plan to go early before storms arrive.
- Northern and central Plains: boots and a warm layer under the costume — this is the one region with a real shot at snow on the ground.
- Midwest and Great Lakes: you may not need a jacket at all. Watch for a late-day shower as the system approaches.
- Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: dry but cool — a jacket over the costume from Detroit to Boston.
- Southeast, Florida and the West Coast: mild and mostly dry; a normal Halloween evening.
We’ll update this page after the holiday with what actually happened — which cities beat their odds, and whether the Plains snow and Midwest warmth verified. If your Halloween night went wildly off the forecast, tell us what your thermometer or rain gauge read and we’ll fold it in. In the meantime, compare your city against the full ranking in Halloween trick-or-treat odds by city, look ahead to the odds of snow on Thanksgiving, or browse every state’s all-time weather records. City pages for Minneapolis, Chicago and Dallas carry their full Halloween-season climatology.
Sources & Method
The forecast for October 31, 2026 is a dated snapshot as of October 27, 2026, attributed to AccuWeather’s published Halloween 2026 outlook (rain across Texas/CA/eastern OK and the lower Mississippi Valley; up to ~6 inches of early Plains/Midwest snow; mountain snow in the Sierra, Klamaths and Rockies; 70s–80s warmth ahead of the system; a chillier Detroit-to-Boston air mass) and to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlook (issued Oct 26, valid Nov 1–5), which favors above-normal temperatures across much of the Plains, Midwest, South and East and flags a heavy-precipitation risk over Arizona and the lower Four Corners for Oct 31–Nov 2. The Southwest Flood Watches/Warnings noted above are current NWS products.
The Halloween climatology was re-queried October 27, 2026 from the site’s Neon copy of NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network–Daily dataset, using the best-coverage airport station for each city, for the exact date October 31, 1970–2025 (Denver 1995–2025). Values verified this run include Minneapolis’s 8.2 inches on Oct 31, 1991, Chicago’s 77°F in 1974, and Dallas’s 89°F in 1977. The per-city freeze, rain and snow odds are from our standing Halloween odds dataset. Forecasts change; this page will be updated to observed conditions after October 31.