August 4 in New York City
Weather forecasts run out after about two weeks. For any date further out than that, the honest answer isn't a single number — it's the range New York City actually delivers on this date, and how often.
On August 4, New York City, NY typically reaches 85°F, but has run anywhere from 78°F to 92°F in eight years out of ten. About 67% of August 4s see no measurable precipitation.
The odds on August 4
Odds computed from the last 30 years (1996–2025).
We scored real forecasts against the station at NY CITY CNTRL PARK. A next-day forecast there misses the high by 2.8°F on average; by 7 days out that grows to 5.9°F. The range on this page spans 14°F, so inside about two weeks a real forecast is far sharper — past that, there isn't one, and this is what's left. See how your city ranks.
Where this comes from: 840 daily observations from NY CITY CNTRL PARK, covering 1970–2025. We pool every day within 7 days of August 4 — a single calendar date has only about 55 readings, far too few to place a 10th percentile you'd want to trust.
Why it's not a plain average: A climatology computed straight across 1970–2025 describes the middle of that period, not today, so as a statement about the present it runs cold. We fit a trend on year and shift each observation to 2025 before taking the range. The probabilities use the last 30 years instead — shifting a temperature along a trend is well defined, shifting “did it rain” is not.
What this is not: Not a forecast. It is what New York City, NY has actually done on this date, which is the only defensible answer once you're past the two-week horizon where real forecasts stop. Data: NOAA NCEI GHCN-Daily.