October 31 in New York City
Weather forecasts run out after about two weeks. For any date further out than that, the honest answer isn't a single number — it's the range New York City actually delivers on this date, and how often.
On October 31, New York City, NY typically reaches 59°F, but has run anywhere from 50°F to 71°F in eight years out of ten. About 72% of October 31s see no measurable precipitation.
The odds on October 31
Odds computed from the last 30 years (1996–2025).
We scored real forecasts against the station at NY CITY CNTRL PARK. A next-day forecast there misses the high by 2.8°F on average; by 7 days out that grows to 5.9°F. The range on this page spans 21°F, so inside about two weeks a real forecast is far sharper — past that, there isn't one, and this is what's left. See how your city ranks.
Where this comes from: 840 daily observations from NY CITY CNTRL PARK, covering 1970–2025. We pool every day within 7 days of October 31 — a single calendar date has only about 55 readings, far too few to place a 10th percentile you'd want to trust.
Why it's not a plain average: A climatology computed straight across 1970–2025 describes the middle of that period, not today, so as a statement about the present it runs cold. We fit a trend on year and shift each observation to 2025 before taking the range. The probabilities use the last 30 years instead — shifting a temperature along a trend is well defined, shifting “did it rain” is not.
What this is not: Not a forecast. It is what New York City, NY has actually done on this date, which is the only defensible answer once you're past the two-week horizon where real forecasts stop. Data: NOAA NCEI GHCN-Daily.