Weather Odds for Any Date
Planning a wedding, a race, a move, or a backyard party? Forecasts only reach about 10 days out. For everything past that, the best answer is the base rate: how often it has actually rained, snowed, sweltered, or frozen on your date, across 50+ years of NOAA records near your ZIP code.
Pick a date and ZIP code for the historical chance of rain, snow, heat, and frost.
Try an Example
What You'll See
- Odds of measurable rain, a quarter inch, and a full inch
- Odds of snow — any, and an inch or more
- Odds of 90°+ and 100°+ heat, and of a freeze
- Odds of a genuinely pleasant day (65–85° and dry)
- Average and record highs and lows for the date
Frequently Asked Questions
What are weather odds?
Weather odds are historical probabilities: the share of past years where a given event — rain, snow, 90-degree heat, a freeze — actually happened on or around a calendar date at your location. If it rained on 4 of every 10 October 12ths near your ZIP code over the last 50 years, your odds of rain are about 40%.
How are the odds calculated?
We take every daily observation ever recorded at the NOAA station nearest your ZIP code within a ±3-day window of your date — usually 300 to 700 individual days across 50+ years — and count how often each event occurred. Using a window around the date gives a much more stable estimate than the exact date alone.
Are these odds a forecast?
No. Odds are the climatological base rate — the starting point before any forecast information exists. Inside 10 days of your date, blend them with an actual forecast. Beyond 10 days, historical odds are honestly the best information available for planning.
Can I use this to pick a wedding date?
That’s exactly what it’s for. Compare a few candidate dates and you’ll often find a two-week shift cuts your rain odds meaningfully — or moves you out of the season where 95° afternoons are a coin flip.