January 17 in New Orleans
Weather forecasts run out after about two weeks. For any date further out than that, the honest answer isn't a single number — it's the range New Orleans actually delivers on this date, and how often.
On January 17, New Orleans, LA typically reaches 63°F, but has run anywhere from 48°F to 76°F in eight years out of ten. About 70% of January 17s see no measurable precipitation.
The odds on January 17
Odds computed from the last 30 years (1997–2026).
Highs around January 17 have warmed about 0.3°F per decade since 1970 — roughly 1.5°F across the record. The figures above are shifted along that trend to 2026, so they describe today's climate rather than the average of the last 56 years.
We scored real forecasts against the station at NEW ORLEANS AUDUBON. A next-day forecast there misses the high by 4.2°F on average; by 7 days out that grows to 4.5°F. The range on this page spans 28°F, so inside about two weeks a real forecast is far sharper — past that, there isn't one, and this is what's left. See how your city ranks.
Where this comes from: 829 daily observations from NEW ORLEANS AUDUBON, covering 1970–2026. We pool every day within 7 days of January 17 — a single calendar date has only about 56 readings, far too few to place a 10th percentile you'd want to trust.
Why it's not a plain average: A climatology computed straight across 1970–2026 describes the middle of that period, not today, so as a statement about the present it runs cold. We fit a trend on year and shift each observation to 2026 before taking the range. The probabilities use the last 30 years instead — shifting a temperature along a trend is well defined, shifting “did it rain” is not.
What this is not: Not a forecast. It is what New Orleans, LA has actually done on this date, which is the only defensible answer once you're past the two-week horizon where real forecasts stop. Data: NOAA NCEI GHCN-Daily.